Thursday, December 29, 2005

My 10 New Year's Resolutions

Here's my list of New Year's resolutions upon which entropy will be working its wonders....

#10. Do NOT Choose a Hotel on the Internet, Sight Unseen.
I could give numerous reasons and countless examples precisely why, though I reckon that most with a modicum of taste and a wafer of expectation will know what I am talking about. Yet, when in need at the last moment, I still find myself lured and ensared by slick-looking but apparently ten-year old photos taken from "the perfect angle" obscuring the view of the railroad yards or motorway across adjacent. How about "room cams"? On second tought, maybe not....

#9. Disconnect My Cable.
No, not in lieu of a satellite dish but for peace and quiet and added industriousness. I am certain that seventy-five channels are merely seventy-four ways (excluding BBC World) to squander one's meager allotment of time on this planet with drivel, nonsense and mis-information. If you're reading my blog, then you apparently already made an important disassociative step from enslavement by the evil box. IF however you are a frequent FOX watcher, it may be too late to help.

#8. Avoid Indian food.
It tastes so so good. And the burn of a spicy curry releases a torrent of endorphins that overwhelms me with narcotic contentment. But I always always always regret it afterwards....

#7. Try Again to "Understand" Conservatives.
If the Dalai Lama doesn't hate the Chinese considering what they've done to his beloved Tibet, but rather feels true sorrow for them, then I reckon I can try yet again to understand and be sympathetic to arguments for why selfishness is inherently superior, and why being kind to people who are less fortunate than me will somehow f*ck everything up. I'll admit that I've been unsucessful so far at really getting my head around it, but I promise that I'll try....

#6. Respect the Market.
There is quite often a paradoxical wisdom in the herd. They know a good thing when they see it. But they typically don't know how to price it. That in itself instinctually "feels" like an opportunity to a natural contrarian like myself. Yet, the crowd typically doesn't care about the price of that thing. Not a bit. It just cares that it's good and that they want it. This means the price of such a thing can remain very divergent for a very long time. As such, its useful to remember that when it comes to trading growth counter-trendwise, time is NOT on your friend.

#5. Enjoy the Crowd.
I am naturally wary of crowds. Too much company or consensus in a position makes me feel decidely nervous. I can't help that - it's my nature. But the crowd CAN do a lot of heavy lifting in maret sense (of prices). And since it appears we are living in a brave new world dominated by feedback trading trend-followers, I will endeavor to relax more when I find myself long of momentum.

#4. Finish Writing the Novel.
It's rather frightening to consider how many resolution lists this one will find itself. MY novel continues to gestate. In fact, I feel like I am already finished it in my head. All I have to do is commit it to paper. Why am I hesitating? OK, besides the house full of kids? I feel as though I am in swimming trunks contemplating a dive into a rather cold swimming pool on rather cold day. A very cold swimming pool. Jump, damnit! I just have to jump....

#3. Do Not Try to Think 'Economically' About My Boat.
A boat defies all economic logic. It makes no economic sense. Like a poor elderly people or a squadron of Stealth bombers. I must stop trying to rationalize it. It simply is uneconomic. I must accept it, even though it makes much more sense to charter one whenever the fancy strikes. Such is the price for the convenience of leisure on-demnd. Oh crap, I wish I could just stop moaning about it.

#2. Stop Banging My Head Against the Wall and Embrace Inflation and Imbalances.
I must stop caring about inflation and deficits and imbalances. Why should I care about them anyway? No one else does. That makes me a fool. A really big fool and one who is rapidly getting relatively poorer because I care. I must face reality. The reality is: our economic leadership is morally bankrupt, the American people (at least half of them) are selfish and don't want to pay for what they and their country need or consume, the result of which is a long inexorable debasement of the unit of exchange, since anything that halts that debasement will have such grave political consequences that it is completely untenable. The economist in me says "what is unsustainable will NOT be sustainable", and the markets will enforce the discipline that our leaders, and we as citizens (at least half of us) are too weak, inept or selfish to undertake. But in 2006, I will just "let go", leverage up, buy a truckload of speculative stocks and real estate in hot markets and if the train wrecks, then I'll suffer with everyone else. But what really sucks is the classic behavioural FUBAR of watching everyone else amass wealth while I worry about the ultimate conequence of inflation....

#1. Don't Short on Price (read: valuation).
Like the schoolboy forced to write his penance on the chalkboard during detention, I WILL NOT SHORT ON PRICE. I WILL NOT SHORT ON PRICE. I WILL NOT SHORT ON PRICE. (And if I do, then I will do so only briefly).

Happy New Year to all and may you have success with your own resolutions!! (except for the misogynous bastards that think its clever or fun to steal from their investors by ramping stocks in the end of the year in order to collect a bonus or incentive fee).

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