Friday, August 17, 2007

Scary Movie ?


What has just happened? Well you see there are formulaic scenes in early every horror flick: the boy with excess curiousity, the waif running away who trips, the rise from the dead calm following victory, and so forth.

The young boy whose incessant curiousity compels him against all good reason to explore the spookiest nooks and crannies of the rickety house with viewer thinking, "OH NO! DON'T, PLEASE DON'T PLEAEEASSSE DON'T OPEN THAT DOOR', after which the innocent opens it followed by chaos, terror, blood, screams and mayhem. Yes that describes the credit bubble, of which the US sub-prime mortgage mess is but one expression.

Then there is the archetypical scene in which the lovely, scantily-clad, and always young and female is running away from something terrible, horrible possibly supernatural, and ALWAYS very dangerous (ostensibly through the woods, often when its raining) who inevitably slips, falls and twists an ankle (breaks a leg, get trapped under something-or-other), leaving our heroine helpless and paralysed by fear as the imminent danger encroaches upon her. Sometimes she does manage to [temporarily] escape or is [temporarily] rescued by heroism or happenstance. Equity markets it would seem, have just witnessed such an occurance with foreign Japanese equity "longs", and Japanese domestic housewives short the YEN vs high carry currencies , both proverbially spraining ankles in their haste to runaway! runaway! runaway! from IT.

And there is of course the scene where the hero or heroine believes the danger to have mortally passed, with the villain/monster/beast/alien either [apparently] incapacitated, injured, mortally wounded, and perhaps appealing to the emotions and superior sympathy of the hero (and viewer) and usually accompanied by weepy music, in order to make a confession/apology of sorts, drawing the hero closer closer closer dropping his guard until with a rapid fury and force accompanied by loud suspenseful music, we get.....RATE CUT!!!! RATE CUT!!!! , mauling [at least temporarily] the shorts, doomsters, nattering naybobs, and those that sold their Japanese stocks down 10 or 15% last night, all at once.

Needless to say, following more excessive force, multiple gunshots, or help from rescuers, the villain, alien, credit monetser or what-have-you, is usually slayed [really!, and for good!] despite the previous fits and bouts apparent recovery. But lingering again, one never really knows for certain. I think I'll rent "Dead Calm" tonight just to keep me on my toes....

6 comments:

RJH Adams said...

Ugly (who'd have been the bond mkt this am) - but will it work?

Someone is in a boatload of pain, surely, to have got Bernanke to actually listen/heed the Bat Phone pleadings.

"Cassandra" said...

The recovery from near-suicidal lows (put-to-call was 1.6 mid-day!!) yesterday afternoon indicated to me that someone's secretary had phoned someone's brother who told his mistress (who worked as a broker on The Street) who called everyone she knew saying Rumor has it the Fed Govs have called a special meet...

I think the continuing erosion in US PCE is now deterministic, along with the ongoing ripples from house-construction implosion
and as a result of deteriorating collateral values, an evaporation of equity that cannot but lead to a negative wealth effect a-la UK 1991. The thing is that nominal falls in i-rate s can't help this since it is as much a result of excess supply, as it is falling demand. Because of the structural nature of markets, bear bounces will in the course of events, be excruciatingly painful for those that are leveraged or watch the tape continuously. The "man with a plan" must account for this or he'll get squeezed and whipsawed, even though his/her sentiment may have been correct.

I watched that Zappa Crossfire appearance. Novak ALWAYS was a weenie (and still is!)...and where did they find this guy from the Wash Times, who resembled The Grand Imperial Inquisitor" more than he did a journalist?

Charles Butler said...

Do you really think it had to go through so many intermediaries? I'm left with the impression that the needy were actually in attendance.

RJH Adams said...

Pep-talk symbolism it does appear to be.

On Zappa/Crossfire the man's patience was astounding (just rose above it, water off the proverbial). It is difficult to observe a journalist gloss over how censorship would work as though it is not at all a problem (a journalist, man, a journalist); and much less one than curbing free speech rights. Where is he now (not FZ, the WA Times moral crusader)? Must run a check...

"Cassandra" said...

if justice be done, the conservative bugger is incontinent, but unable to afford either adult-diapers or care, living on an un-cost-of-living-adjusted pension in a roach-infested bed-sit, dis-owned by his offspring who are ironically themselves fans of "Nine Inch Nails", "inked from head to toe" and running a meth-lab somewhere in the bayou, while pa' is forced to eat "Alpo" or "Tiddles & Bits" out of can, listening to endless re-plays of 'The Anderson Sisters". But then again, maybe that too good fer him.

Anonymous said...

But he wouldn't hurt a fly...