Monday, May 12, 2008

Month-End Performance Steroids Anyone?

I have never been a big believer in coincidence. So on May 2nd I wondered aloud about some April 30 month-end shenanigans in the post Mark of Desperation. Of particular interest was "Who?".

Despite being opinionated, I do not wish to slander anyone. I do believe however, I have answered my own question (with the help of MoF filings) and will leave it to you dear readers to see whether you can figure it out too and answer the subsequent pregnant YEN100-per-share questions: #1: What on earth were thinking?; #2: Did they think no one would notice? and finally question
#3: What conclusions should their investors draw from such ummmm errrrr disclosed transactions??

Yes filings are good. They bring the occluded into plain view. So what do YOU think: Coincidence? Nefarious? Bravado? Happnestance? Algorithmic Buffoonery? Cynical? Or merely serendipitous?


CB said...

Take a look at MTF.MC on Yahoo. The confidence and legitimacy boosting run-up to the March 26th renegotiation of the 4.1 bn loan, by the 17th in default, went through the free float 4 times. They got the lenders to bite, but the fine print in the filings has MTF on the hook for another 350 million before eoy - which can only be borrowed if subordinate.

Being in the business of providing holiday dwellings in Spain and Morrocco and permanent ones in Hungary, Romania and Poland, getting it out of cash flow shouldn't be a problem.

As to who did all that buying - not a peep.

Timothy said...

Somewhat bizarre midmonth price action in Nichicon. No idea WTF that was about, buts that's Japan. PS what part of the words "f*ck" & "off" don't TCI understand.

"Cassandra" said...

Hi Charles - Someone clearly had an axe. I am a fujll-believer in "name & shame" as opposed to "don't ask and don't tell". There is always some aliasing - i.e. a wishful finger-pointer such as yours truly "sees" something at month end, that in actual fact was an earnings revision, or material news. This is however, more the exception than the rule.

Timothy - Obviously nothing whatsoever. If you hadn't already read it, see. TeamJapan 3 Carpet Baggers 1. I typically loathe re-reading things that I've composed long ago, but occasionally, I do manage to hit the target, (such this one), so I will pat myself on the back.

As for Nichicon, your guess is as good as mine. "Cheap" and shrinking are classic value traps, but occasionally the shorts become too numerous and irrespective of how poor the immediate prospects, becomes ripe for a squeezing. They historically were a large supplier to AAPL until their capacitors starting oozing back goo out of everyone;s G5 which AAPL has to fix gratis. Ooops.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, but typically they're putting up stock as collateral with riders that require it to remain above a certain price. So, the first task was to shake out the shorts. If they went for them at 14 and signed the deal at 20, they've got at least 6 in cushion there. Personally, I have a very good idea who some of the culprits were. A certain bottler of an edible oil product would stand out.

Not that I actually lost on either of those, but I certainly expected more.


Timothy said...

Hi Cassandra, tracked down the reason. Nomura about to launch a "value" fund, although not quite as value as before somebodies prop desk (hmmm) found out. Nichicon in then out and Nippon-Chemicon in hence shenanigans.

Timothy said...

Sorry for wasting your time re TCI not been reading your blog for long, only came across it by accident when I googled Jonathan Allum & this came up. Searchable archive would be good