Thursday, June 14, 2007

US REITs - Canary In The Coalmine?

( muffled electronic voice crackling from the p.a. system....)

"Attention risky asset holders. This is your Captain speaking. In case you haven't noticed, we are experiencing a bit of turbulence. You might think that things have smoothed out at the moment, but I ask you to please keep your seat-belts fastened, for if look out your window (on the upper left), you'll notice that Commercial Real Estate still looks very sick and is making new and lower lows. I am going to try to fly up and over it, however, if you see any other risky asset classes adrift, I kindly ask you to notify the nearest cabin hostess (or steward), and then make whatever preparations necessary for a hasty exit."

Mack-Cali (pictured above in a one-year daily candle chart courtesy of BBG) either represents a sober warning to risky-asset holders, or an exceptional opportunity to buy Warren Buffett's favorite post 2002-puke-out commercial real estate value. What do YOU think?

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