Ho Chi Minh Sandals Indeed!!

Though not short of opinions generally, and rarely without a view on most things financial, I try my best to remain decidedly humble should they, in the fullness of time, be proved true, for despite my wishful thinking to the contrary, I realize that it is more likely to be luck than any measurable prowess in the prophecy department.

That said, I do appreciate when someone notices that an old prognostication has sufficiently ripened that there can be little doubt it should be harvested. Unfortunately, my in-box is empty, and so today, I will, before going for a long, leisurely jog, pat myself on the back in regards to my musings on Ho Chi Minh Sandals, which has seen its rating dramatically compress from an implied forward PE of more than 25x to a current estimated PE of 6x. Note that with 2009 ests ranging from 1.40 to 2.40/shr (mean of 1.85), that most of the wealth destruction is NOT attributable to actual changes in estimated earnings (down from a peak of $3.00), but a reversal of expectations that impacts what investors will pay for those earnings.

That, at least, is one way to look at it. On the other hand it might be that short-sellers (now short close to 40% of the float), unencumbered by reg-SHO, and possibly possessing material non-public information about the future prospects of earnings, have mercilessly pounded the stock making sure that they puke each and every growth, momo, and speculative long. (Nearly) priceless!