Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Is There Really a Goldilocks?

Some things to ruminate upon:

1. What's the outcome of a tug-o'-war between a falling dollar and Roubini-esque property-led slackening of US domestic demand, and the interaction of the two, upon the dollar price of oil.

2. Ponder whether US rates can survive in their current purgatory-like trading range once the markets smell dollar blood?

3. What is the probability of a genuine Goldilocks scenario including lower energy prices, muted inflation, natural correction in US & global imbalances without contractionary policy and outcome?

4. Could it be that Historical Cap Rates in US Commercial Real Estate and residential housing were, historically speaking, too low, and we are witnessing not a "bubble" nor "flight to hard assets" but simply a re-rating or semi-permanent state-change to higher (albeit sustainably so) valuations ??

5. Will anyone muster the courage to "call out" the BoJ & MoF for their not-so-benign-neglect in letting the Yen slide by >35% vs. the Euro since 2002?

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is the worst blog i have ever read. It sounds like it was written by a spam bot.

Cassandra said...

Wonderfully illuminating and detailed critique!!