Thursday, September 19, 2019
Bear Market in Integrity Continues (2019 Update)
Things, people, and/or ideas believed to have integrity, now seemingly compromised...(the second third fourth latest updated and expanded version). The bear market in integrity continues unrelentingly…2013, 2014, 2015, 2019 edition.
Permbears
Woodford
Carlos Ghosn
Sheryl Sandberg
Quantitative Easing
Boeing Corp
Generic Pharma
Justin Trudeau
James Dyson
Kayne West
US Immigration Policy
Alan Dershowitz
Patisserie Valerie
PFI
PBGC
Defined Benefit Pensions
Grant Thornton
John Humphrys
Susan Collins
Ben Sasse
Lisa Murkowski
Hertz
Toshiba
Swedbank
Tom Brady
Morrissey
Roger Daltry
Deutsche Bank
Danish Banking
Elon Musk
Australian Cricket
US Gymnastic Trainers
UK Football Coaches
SAT Tests
US University Admissions
Louis CK
Al Franken
Wells Fargo
Anthony Weiner
Intel CPUs
Kobe Steel
Mitsubishi Materials
Johnson & Johnson Corp
Volkswagen
Porsche
Audi
Fantasy Sports
Theranos
Mt Gox
Lufthansa
NFL Football Air-Pressure
Bill Cosby
Pot Noodles
Michel Platini
"Kids Company" Charity
Student Loans
Rabobank
US Secret Service
Energy MLPs
Glastonbury
Tesco
Whole Foods Market
Bruce Jenner
American Police Conduct
Rachel Dolezal
Airbags
Red Meat
SCOTUS
Jimmy Savile (tnx Anon)
Rolf Harris (tnx Anon)
US Veterans Administration
The Red Cross
CPI
Justin Bieber
Abenomics
CPS
The London Gold Fix
Chris Christie
Snooker
Intrade
US Govt Agency Data Release
The UK National Health Service
Swiss Train Safety
Nick Clegg
IM Confidentiality
Austerity
BBC Management & Oversight
SSL
Risk Parity
Whistleblowing
Segregated Customer Accounts
Investment Consultants
Bloomberg Privacy
Dark Pools
Intrade
London FX PM Closing Prices
Meredith Whitney
Reinhart & Rogoff
Gold
Jérôme Cahuzac
Japanese Yen
Jamie Dimon/JP Morgan
Bitcoin
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena
LULU
IKEA Meatballs
Wen Jiabao as "Humble Servant of The People
Lance Armstrong
Top Ten Lists
NYSE
Facebook
Austerity as an Economic Panacea
Harvard Students' Academic Honesty
BLS Statistics
Cyclical Recovery
Book Reviews
Strong Computer Passwords
Toyota
'Organic' Food
Money Velocity
Patents
Undecided Voters
Hospitals
The Food Pyramid
Purity of '.999 Fine Gold Bars
Penn State Football
"Top of the Pops"
Fareed Zakaria
The "risk-free" rate
LIBOR as a Benchmark
Public Sector Pensions
HFT as a Beneficial Provider of liquidity
Diversifying properties of Hedge Fund's
Einstein's Theory of Special Relativity
Celtic Rangers
Macroeconomic Forecasts
John Paulson
FRB Open Market Operations
Standardized Educational Testing
Swiss National Bank
A Relaxing Cruise
WTI as Oil Benchmark
Olympus Corp.
TEPCO
Payment Protection Insurance
DSK
HM Revenue & Customs
Sony Playstation Network
Google
Privacy
Social Mobility
Actuarial Return Assumptions for Pension Funds
Marmite
Ryan Giggs
Acupuncture
USA Govt AAA
France AAA
Voicemail
Boob Jobs
Snooker
David Einhorn
Nuclear Power
Deepwater Drilling
Tiger Woods
Professional Cricket
Sumo
Professional Cycling
High-Frequency Trading
Professional Baseball
FIFA
Professional Tennis
Municipal Bond Underwriting
The Catholic Church
Track & Field Athletics
NCAA Sports
US Congress
UK Parliament
Analyst Research
Credit Ratings
Banks
Newtonian Physics
The Stock Market
The Food Pyramid
Incentive Stock Options
Reinsurance Brokerage
Lou Dobbs
The Mortgage-Backed Securities Market
Hedge Funds
Social Security
Government Balance Sheets
Tooth Fairy
Errr ummm Professional Wrestling is starting to look good by comparison - at least it makes no pretensions to be anything other than it is. What's left?
Wednesday, March 06, 2019
Could Progressives Have Done More to Prevent Nasty Populism?
The
rise of populism has caused both left and right to indict centrist’s
seeming embrace of “neo-liberalism”, to further their own
agendas, or to forensically assign blame for the current blight of
Trump, Brexit, Five Star, Gilets Jaunes, Orban, etc. While
neo-liberalism has always been multi-dimensionally-flawed I believe
these indictments of Centrists are mostly unfair, and fall prey to
the cardinal sin of revisionsm by ignoring the context of centrists’
appeasement with neo-liberalism across most western democracies.
Neo-liberalism
means many different things to different people. While it’s history
is long, it’s come to mean “laissez-faire” government, coupled
with monetarist, supply-side orientation, restraint of social
policies, and generally free trade in goods and cross-border movement
of capital. It rose with popular support from the embers of 70s
inflation, bloated states, and Volcker’s massacre, championed first
by Thatcher and then by Reagan in a re-play of Weimar disorientation
and Brunning’s smackdown. It has accompanied four decades of
economic growth, laid the foundations for globalization, trade
liberalisation and, subsequently, prepared the world for re-entry of
China, Eastern-Europe, and India. It’s helped draw billions of
people out of most extreme poverty, while also fostering rising
inequality in industrialized nations (especially US/UK), industrial
concentration, industrial hollowing, corporate rent-seeking, and with
these, market-failures across many sectors.
Economic
growth and transformation in the 1980s led to general popular
acceptance in the public psyche on grounds of economic efficiency and
positive externalities. Some see this resulting from policy success,
and while some is, I view it through an “Iceland analogy” where
(like Iceland’s meltdown) the Volcker induced pain was so deep and
thorough, that when authorities removed their foot from the economy’s
head, and loosened fiscal policy, there was only one direction for
things to go – both for the economy and the national zeitgeist.
Neo-liberalism
is, was, and always will be, far from perfect. Humans have spent the
better part of our modern history tinkering with “what works” and
what doesn’t in social and business organization, and the
limitations of policy and structure. In the process, we’ve
discovered what are likely the effective (pragmatic) boundaries of
taxation, regulation, fiscal, and monetary policies, as well as
nuances of democracy, and human rights. As a result, we know that:
Government is not universally bad, inept or inefficient (but
certainly has the capacity to be); both fiscal and monetary policy
have roles to play and differ according to circumstance and regime;
we ignore the social impacts of economic policy and income/wealth
distribution at our peril (ask Nicholas II!); trade is good, and
unfettered globalization can hollow-out industries; immigration has
strong economic benefits but also has social consequences; that
mobile capital is pre-disposed to rent-seek and arbitrage both
regulation and tax; and that markets often fail – whether from
privatised monopolies, natural monopolies, or collusive oligopoly.
But don’t always use this knowledge, and since it’s emergence in
1981, forces who gain parochially from “purer” policy (be it
tax, regulation, environment) have organized to prevent The State
from using and applying this hard-won knowledge.
Clinton
and New Labour, and then Obama thereafter, are accused mostly by the
more ambitious left - both academics and politicians – of
embracing neo-liberalism and thereby neglecting the social
consequences thereby creating the present populist backlash. I’ve
also heard it from think-tankers, writers/journalists and academics
blithely blaming the failure of centrists. And I have a problem with
this. Not a problem with the fact that neo-liberalism has contributed
to the populist backlash (I agree to some extent), but rather that
Centrists should shoulder the blame for this.
Both
history and policy analysis are contextual and incremental. In all
but the most extraordinary times, we are bounded by prevailing
sentiments. Progressives, Democrats, Liberals, Social Democrats have
been in ideological opposition to the prevailing societal narrative
since Reagan/Thatcher’s success and popular pursuit of neo-liberal
agenda(s). Legislative majorities and electoral considerations in
this environment further constrain policy options. Consider Walter
Mondale in 1984, which was a defining electoral moment. Mondale, a
Minesota Democrat, a sensible pragmatic progressive suggested: “We
might have to raise taxes”, in a debate, and was requited with one
of the most resounding defeats in electoral history. Ditto for
Dukakis in 1988 whose opponent GHW Bush’s catchphrase “Read my
lips – No new taxes” produced an equally decisive result. Would a
more radical left have fared better? Hardly. Would a harder left
manifesto by Kinnock have led to a labour victory with similar
constraints? No.
By
1992, in the US, Clinton and the progressives understood the
impediments. Ditto Labour/Blair in ‘97. Claim more of the center,
assuage fears on the economy. One can wish all one wants for a pure
and fanciful but unpopular manifesto, but in the end nothing gets
done if you don’t have power. And even if legislatively, it proves
difficult, you will have prevented the worst-case erosion from more
conservative agendas. Now that you had power – albeit with slim and
fickle popular vote majorities, what could you do. As said, you could
prevent further erosion, tinker on the edges of social policy, but
giving is easy – taking away is hard. Ambitious social agendas
require spending, and the lessons from Mondale remain. And
legislative majorities short-lived and easily obliterated by an
economic mis-step, and constatntly shifting and challenged at State
levels. Their best hope was go with flow, expand the economy and
opportunity. Their achievement was continuing to foster growth,
pursuing sounder social and environmental policies, and being less
mean-spirited than the conservatives. Is that something to be proud
of? Were they unwitting stooges of global capital, manipulated by
industrialists to shaft The People? Not in the main. Both Clinton &
Obama arrived with ambitious plans to tackle healthcare and failed.
The failure resulted from broken democratic process, cynical lobbying
and media distortion, and corrupt subterfuge across party lines, but
not an embracement of neo-liberalism by the center. This is
indicative of being in power, but remaining in opposition to the
prevailing (probably contentious and often wrong) economic
narrative. But one thing is certain: social policies, and economic
policies with the most negative negative externalities upon The
People, were less bad, and illiberal social agendas delayed or
stymied during progressive rule.
That
alone made would have made co-opting neo-liberalism worth it.
It’s
useful to denigrate one’s predecessors in order to set oneself
apart and cut a new path. But this carries dangers as zealots are
everywhere (on both sides). Impugn the historical reality of
pragmatic centrism, and one may open the path to von
Hindenberg-National Socialist coalitions in response. By all means,
I believe journalists, activists, academics, think-tankers and
politicians, should make the case for reducing inequality, increasing
opportunites, crackdowns on crony-capitalism and corporate
rent-seeking, better education, transport, housing, regional policies
for changing economic geographies, and more humane immigration
policies. But do not destroy the efforts of pragmatists who’ve
throttled the corrosive effects of ideologically-driven
neo-liberalism. There is too much at stake.
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