So farewell
then
(yet again)
John W. Meriwether.
Old saws
abound
to describe
your fickle luck
and less-than
illustrustriousness.
Such as
"Fortune favors
the bold"
errr not
always.
"Thrice lucky"
perhaps?,
ummm.
not quite.
"The cream
rises to
the top?".
Evidently
not.
"There's a
sucker born
every day...",
ah, yes, that
will be your
catchphrase.
(with usual apologies to EJ Thribb and PrivateEye)
How can one tell if JWM is just unlucky, or his methods are flawed?
ReplyDeletepeer-group comparative analysis, event-related stress-testing and transparency to the position level...?!??
ReplyDeleteI daresay, it's likely he's suffered from a bit of both.
Perhaps you did all this?
ReplyDeleteI think its easy to shoot at JM.
Nice to see you at least know what analysis would be needed.
Can you make a definitive statement about the funds performance?
He who holds a gun should at least have some bullets, but not Cassandra!
Unlikely, here you tell what needs to be done and yet you made no attempt to do it.
Can you tell us the monthly performance for the fund last year?
How easy it is to espouse opinions without any objective backing....you should be a journalist.
anonymous. I am unsure what you're beef is. do you think I am unfair in my "poetry" or in my post-mortem attribution (or both perhaps)? I think investors in JWM are more of a Turkey Shot than at JWM. Morevover, I am fascinated by the seeming lackadaisical nature of investors following such a spectacular flame-out as that of LTCM, and all its resultant lessons. I mean society deems it sufficiently just to affix bracelet tags upon prisoners; so if one is to be permissive or magnanimous in doling out second (or third) chances then it follows that transparency and oversight must be the equivalent in hedgfundland.
ReplyDeleteIf there are facts or mitigating circumstances that you believe make my opinions maligned, then do please feel free to share them with readers here forthwith.
"I daresay, it's likely he's suffered from a bit of both."
ReplyDeleteI think the fatal flaw of his system is the necessity of using 15:1 leverage. One small mistake, BAM! the fund is dead - no margin for error.
It always surprises me how investors keep throwing money at them. I guess once you are in the league, you can always get money from another sucker.
ReplyDeleteReminds me of Victor Niederhoffer, of which they had an article in the new yorker a couple of years ago with the catchy title "the blow-up artist". Always nice to have some competition.
a little regime-switching predictive algorithm to accurately forecast a leverage corridor for the next n-periods with a reasonable margin of safety would be nice to have ...
ReplyDeleteThird time's a charm?
ReplyDeleteWe miss you Cassandra.
Any thoughts on the Eternal Spring in China? When is Winter coming?