Friday, December 25, 2009

10 Surprises for 2010

I can't help but the join the bull market in 2010 surprises. Here they are, like 'em or not....

10. Obama administration despite pyrrhic healthcare victory sets sights on social security reform including some means-testing and tax and contribution holidays for those working longer than age 65.
9. The DGDF meme wilts. Carry-trades in entire anti-dollar complex implode. EM equity fares best (relatively) in unwind.
8. Europeans demand new gas pricing regime with Russia as shale gas is proven to be present "in spades" throughout the continent.
7. CIC buys the Gherkin and becomes the largest shareholder in Ferrovial - doesn't touch distressed Dubai assets.
6. Popularity of naturopathic and herbal remedies EXPLODES. P&G makes large acquisition in this space.
5. The virtues of coffee are PROVEN to exceed their detriments in a landmark study puiblished in Lancet. Despite this GMCR shares underperform the market dramatically.
4. A large indictment of Wall Street executives ensues, accused of tunneling in regards to mortgage securitisations. Main Street rejoices. Agent-principal conflicts become the rage.
3. In a blinding glimpse of the obvious, diesels finally become increasingly popular in America since even big cars can achieve >60 mpg with perfectly acceptable performance, and plenty of interior quietude.
2. Inflation DOESN'T rise. But rising expectations of inflationary expectations refuse to be quelled.
1. Byron Wein stops making predictions in 2010 citing the inability to find sensible anti-consensus predictions...

(bonus prediction: Ireland, desperate to emerge from its mire launches a full-frontal assault to garner hedge fund relocates destined for Switzerland with corporate tax-holidays and "We'll Match Any Bona-Fide First World Forfait Offer in Writing" guarantee)

Seasons Greetings to All & Best Wishes for 2010!

14 comments:

valeriobrl said...

A great 2010 for U and your family.
(trading the long side on GOLD now :-) )

Anonymous said...

For surprise #9 (carry-trade unwind)to pan out would we be needing an eventful/black swan turning point or some new war between equals? since the FED's mood seems insistent to keep tracking BOJ policy for now.Your thoughts please?

Castanea_d said...

Season's greetings to you, as well. I enjoy reading your blog (and the ensuing comments), and have learned much by so doing.

Anonymous said...

I also enjoy reading your blog - just wish you'd post more often !!!

Rick

Anonymous said...

I would be greatful if you would elaborate just a little on your rationale for numbers 5 & 6. What studies/articles/research are you looking at? Thanks in advance.

Anonymous said...

anonymous 4:26

I wish I could point to some seminal Harvard Medical School work on the subject - but it really is (for the moment) wishful thinking that I hope will get my spouse off of my back (at least as it pertains to coffee) - one of my few remaining pleasures. I am not in the least qualified to judge the studies that ARE out there, suffice to say the detriments (meaningful contribution to higher cholestrerol especially in [conjunction with bad diet, smoking and drinking) appear at the moment to be tempered by meaningfully large reduced risk of diabetes, certain cancers, and (if I'm not mistaken - alzheimer's).

As for the Naturpathic remedies, Kava-Kava (intuitively-speaking) surely beats hard-drinking and spousal abuse hands-down...

-C-

chris g said...

I like your PG naturpathic prediction. I don't know if it has any merit but it's something I have thought about for a long time. PG spends a couple billion a year on researching consumer products. Most of their offerings work very well whereas (generalizing here) naturpathic stuff tends to be kind of psychological or "long term" at best.

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Anonymous said...

Er, the P&G prediction is pure fancy. Aren't they getting out of pharmaceuticals? In any case, the best thing for P&G would be for them to sell off the components while they still have some value.

Michael said...

Hi,
Did I miss the follow up to your Apple G5 problems so eloquently reported in September?
PAX
Michael

pablo mosis said...

You miss the massive rise of 3D entertainment business with Avatar follow up:

3D movies in cinema
3D video games like 3D WII games or Playstation.

You know James cameron used to be a good market leader in that way...

jeannick said...

.


Hello Cassandra ,

A petrol tax for independence day perhaps ?
It would not be as shocking as the mad terrorist Obama undermining the U.S. constitution with the introduction of the metric system .

.

Chris (i-cjw.com) said...

Ach, no surprises for these tortured isles?

Anonymous said...

amen on bryon ...put a fork in that farce of a man already