Friday, December 25, 2009
10 Surprises for 2010
I can't help but the join the bull market in 2010 surprises. Here they are, like 'em or not....
10. Obama administration despite pyrrhic healthcare victory sets sights on social security reform including some means-testing and tax and contribution holidays for those working longer than age 65.
9. The DGDF meme wilts. Carry-trades in entire anti-dollar complex implode. EM equity fares best (relatively) in unwind.
8. Europeans demand new gas pricing regime with Russia as shale gas is proven to be present "in spades" throughout the continent.
7. CIC buys the Gherkin and becomes the largest shareholder in Ferrovial - doesn't touch distressed Dubai assets.
6. Popularity of naturopathic and herbal remedies EXPLODES. P&G makes large acquisition in this space.
5. The virtues of coffee are PROVEN to exceed their detriments in a landmark study puiblished in Lancet. Despite this GMCR shares underperform the market dramatically.
4. A large indictment of Wall Street executives ensues, accused of tunneling in regards to mortgage securitisations. Main Street rejoices. Agent-principal conflicts become the rage.
3. In a blinding glimpse of the obvious, diesels finally become increasingly popular in America since even big cars can achieve >60 mpg with perfectly acceptable performance, and plenty of interior quietude.
2. Inflation DOESN'T rise. But rising expectations of inflationary expectations refuse to be quelled.1. Byron Wein stops making predictions in 2010 citing the inability to find sensible anti-consensus predictions...
(bonus prediction: Ireland, desperate to emerge from its mire launches a full-frontal assault to garner hedge fund relocates destined for Switzerland with corporate tax-holidays and "We'll Match Any Bona-Fide First World Forfait Offer in Writing" guarantee)
Seasons Greetings to All & Best Wishes for 2010!