Over-Cooked and Thrice Lucky?

Note to self: this feels similar to that unlikely moment of Bold Imagination which speculated where the Fat Tail (left) of he EUR/JPY was in 2007. Of course, that doesn't mean that one imagined it OFF THE CHART given that it now sits at, well somewhere  down
down
down
down
down
down
down... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... down sort of like **HERE**.  That was just luck - and don't think it was anything but. However, the determination of where was not.

Being presently agnostic and unemotional (unlike the visceral feelings I shared coinciding with the half-baked EUR/JPY above), I can't help but believe that the JPY is, in kitchen parlance, over-cooked.  Well-done. Scalded. Trop Cuit. Burnt to Crisp. That said, a similar Post Fukushima premonition in Spring 2011 was flat wrong by any reasonable measure. And one cannot forget that I thought (again erroneously) that the break in February earlier this year was "the move", and was more than "a trade', though fickle shorts were puked again.

Now, for the third time (a dozen stabs less than Kyle Bass), I believe that the "the move" is here and upon us - one that will take USD/JPY back from whence it came - to 125 and beyond, and JPYEUR back to the middle of the page. That is a 50% move. This may initially be due to "risk-off" or yet another whipping of the DGDF (dollar goes down forever) meme dear to the heart of FRB conspiricists, but once this proverbial ball gets rolling, we will look back upon this pretty chart as "the mother of all bases", or the most pronounced inverted head & shoulders ever seen in a major currency pair. Of course multitudes of reasons will spring forth to explain, in hindsight, why; and people with the position will grace the cover of Barron's (and their roundtable) touting the trade, their genius and prescience. But most of this will be fiddle-faddle, or dubious rationalization to fill airspace and column inches. For all of importance that will matter is that the herd will have been seen to turn, and leave, and the feedback loop will reinforce itself in all the wondrous and joyous ways speculators have learned to love.

It's uncomfortable (for me) in general to join the chorus, but in this case, I must open the hymn book and sing... Sayonara baby...