Cassandra Does Tokyo

Liar Liar Pants on Fire

2012-01-25T13:54:00.000-08:00

Oh please. Surely, David Einhorn cannot have actually used THAT as his defense. And the FSA, like The Revenue in the Vodafone and Goldman Tax cases, and who remains in apparent awe of corporate celebrity, has seemingly bought at least some of it, judging by their willingness to accept his representations at face value. By comparison with former GLG Chief Spec Philippe Jabre's torpedoing of

Final Result: ZH Mob-417, PK-4

2012-01-23T04:43:00.000-08:00

I will sheepishly admit that I occasionally read the odd ZeroHedge post. Sometimes, it is because they provide some useful information (such as a reprint of a Richar Koo research article). More often it is out of some morbid fascination with demagoguery and how it palpably impacts people's belief structures. Today, the post entitled United Welfare States of America 2011 - Nearly Half Population

So Long (and thanks for the all the....)

2012-01-20T14:55:00.000-08:00

The European Commissionrue Archimède, 731000 BruxellesBELGIUM 18th January, 2012 Dear Hedge Funds, Financial Speculators and Bloggers, Euro-Area members wish to thank you for your support through these difficult times. As you know, thanks chiefly to munificently-expansive fiscal and monetary policies, in other regions (Japanese ZIRP, American near-ZIRP and their respective persistent fiscal

Pleasure Principles

2012-01-15T02:29:00.000-08:00

“What will fill the vacuum formerly occupied by religion?” The most thoughtful, as well as the most memorable wedding gift my spouse and I received in 1993, the year of my first (and only) marriage, was neither the most expensive, nor an object. Rather it was a “Brunch” - that uniquely American invention deplored by

A Farewell DingDong

2012-01-11T07:45:00.000-08:00

Farewell thenHostess Brands - America's Twentieth-Century national baker. Some knewyou asContinental Baking orInterstate Bakeries. Others will remember your WonderBread (Indeed!!)or Homepride (the one upon which Madison Ave. lusciously poured liquid butter); Though it is the child within me whomost fondly recalls your DevilDogs,Ho-Ho'sSuzy-Q'sTwinkies, or the most awesome-of-allDingDongs,which

No Virginia, Tin-Foil Hats Do Not Help....

2012-01-02T02:46:00.000-08:00

Half-truths and paranoia can be downright dangerous. Indeed, the few remaining at MIT who possess a sense of humour demonstrate that, far from protecting their wearers against invasions of the mind by Extra-Terrestrials Dr. Evil Abba The Fed The Government, the shiny material may actually aid their invasion by amplifying radio signals. Ever insightful, they recursively hypothesize that the

New Year's Eve Austerity Ball Menu

2011-12-28T23:14:00.000-08:00

That Euro-Area New Year's Eve Austerity Ball Menu (in Full)31st December, 2011 *** COCKTAILS & HORS D'OUEVRES *** Blood-Orange Punch Perfect Storm CocktailSpanish Sangria (on the Rocks)Campari OJ Crush Bloody Marys (xtra Horsradish)'Clairette de Die' FizzlersGreek Revolution ShootersDie Kinder Punch (for our less responsible guests) PIIGS in a BlanketFried & Shredded TreatiesClownfish

Burnt Out

2011-12-27T15:09:00.000-08:00

Q: How many Tea-Party Members does it take to change an incandescent light bulb?? A: None! They don't change lightbulbs....

Xmas Presents for All!!! (...Red States that is)

2011-12-25T05:26:00.000-08:00

Despite what I have curmudgeonly been telling my children about the realities of Santa, it appears rather to the contrary that (at least for the Red States) there is indeed a Father Christmas. This is evidenced by the luscious and revealing graphic and table provided by an Economist magazine post from Aug 1st entitled America's Fiscal Union. It is germane (and ironic) in several ways: It

End Run??!?

2011-12-13T15:59:00.000-08:00

This is Olympus Corp.'s infamous"4th & Long", Hail Mary attempt at ummm ... errrr .....well it was so long we are not really sure. But we are sure they didn't want anyone to know about -especially their investors, the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and their nosey Limey boss who the board all greatly regret appointing no matter how much money their camera business is bleeding. Of course they should have

Lowest Hanging Fruit

2011-12-12T02:08:00.000-08:00

There has been much vitriol leveled at inequality and what is believed by some to be unfair compensation. CEOs, Professional Sports Stars, Brokers, Bankers, Brokeback Bankers, Actors, Paris Hilton, Hedge Fund Managers, The Koch Brothers, Trial Lawyers, Plastic Surgeons, LBO/Private-Equity Kings, Trustafarians, Mark Zuckerberg, Televangelists, all though not exclusively have been the target of

Caught Out

2011-12-09T03:49:00.000-08:00

Where I used to live, there was little more entertaining than a visit to the local court. An old fashioned justice system, with arbitrary magistrates, colourful defendants opposite the application of justice. This was decidedly NOT a big city court. The transgressions and infractions were typically minor and often bizarre, but always humane in ways not often seen or read about in modernity.

Payback M#erF$#(R!!

2011-12-08T11:29:00.000-08:00

The Wall Street Urinal attempted to kill two birds with a single stone today in article questioning the privilege granted to certain large investors to delay publication of 13F-HRs and 13D filings with the SEC. They specifically target Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway who of course has to file at the same time as everyone but who, along with a handful of others, have been granted delay in

False Labeling ??!!?

2011-12-06T10:57:00.000-08:00

I must admit to being on the sidelines with regards to OWS. Although I empathise with their visceral outrage, and admire their willingness to get out on the streets for a cause, I suspect there is lots culpability all around. But my apathy was broken recently when FT Alphaville ran excerpts from a Dennis Gartman speech entitled "God Bless Income Disparity" in which he characterized the

Rainbow Warrior - Part Deux

2011-12-04T03:46:00.000-08:00

Even I had wavered in my conviction following the deluge of character assassination following DSK's arrest. But now, appearing vindicated per my original post (recounted below), The DSK affair IS looking more definitively like a set-up. Edward Jay Eptstein's account in the NYRB entitled "What Really Happened to Strauss-Kahn" nicely summarizes precisely what we know, and what we don't. To sum it

Crisis Style Guide

2011-12-02T04:48:00.000-08:00

Different folk have distinctive emotional sine waves with different amplitudes, some dramatically so. One can go ecstatic at the thought of a nice pair of shoes on sale. Some will be whipped apoplectically up into a rage by something as hokey as a Glenn Beck diatribe. Some will cry over a slice of Burnt toast. Yet others shrug indifferently at the site of a cute watery-eyed puppy mauled by a

Memo From ICAB

2011-11-22T16:36:00.000-08:00

M E M O R A N D U M TO: CITIZENS OF THE WESTERN WORLDFROM : ICAB - INTERNATIONAL CITIZENS ADVICE BUREAUDATE: AUTUMN OF DISCONTENT 2011SUBJECT: A-U-S-T-E-R-I-T-Y ****************************************************************************** Dear Citizen of the Western World, Although you've probably noticed, evidenced by the numbers of you have been camped in dirty

dEaR sanTA

2011-11-13T12:59:00.000-08:00

dEaR sanTA i KNoW iTs eaRlY buT i wOUld bE so hApPy iF fOr Xmas yOu cOuLD mAke soME of mY XmAS wISheS cOMe trUE..... 1. Some pragmatic compromise between American political parties 2. a Chemistry set with some instructions on transmuting scrap metals into Gold (which I could quietly though parsimoniously hoist upon the goldbugs). 3. a reasonably accurate flashing red "Bullshit Detector" light to

Monkey on Your Back

2011-11-10T14:23:00.000-08:00

This is my last word on Olympus. There are more gripping things going on elsewhere. First, the Facta investigative reporters who originally uncovered and drew attention to the suspicious accounts at Olympus should be commended. They should be commended for their perseverance. Without their work, it is possible that the abuse could have escaped notice for who knows how long. They did not however,

Olympus: Capitulation

2011-11-08T02:56:00.000-08:00

....although surrender might be more apt, capitulation is more accurate. For Kikukawa remains. This says a few things to me. First, as I surmised, it says to me that Kikukawa may have been precise in earlier statements. He probably wan't responsible for the transactions. He wasn't cooking the income statement, but trying to get the shit off of his shoe. He was culpable for being a "good"

Broke, Broker, Brokest

2011-11-03T06:20:00.000-07:00

Farewell thenMF Global....Brokerno more. You've been like chewing-gumstuck to yourinvestors'shoes. Who would'vethought yourshareholders would missPhil Bennett? WhileDumbDumberDumbestmight've beena suitable catchphrase "Broke,Broker,Brokest" would be more apt. But "From Ashes to Ashes, bust to bust"Will be your Epitaph.

Buried Treasure

2011-11-01T06:46:00.000-07:00

I love FinViz. Great charts. Free data. Well-architected. Industry and sector groupings and drilldowns. Great screener with functional groupings. Thin-client with fast GUI and slick heat-maps. ADRs, dual-listed coverage as well as ETFs and futures (along with spot FX and metals). And continuous charting for 24hr markets. Copious ,well-summarized financial data, ratios, both historical and

Kikukawa Quits - Olympus soars (but why?) or Covering Up The Cover-up

2011-10-27T00:32:00.000-07:00

Farewell then, Kikukawa. Bloomberg reported his departure today. Does it change anything at all? Has the uncertainty gone? No. Amongst other things, in his parting statement he said “I apologize for causing concerns due to the share decline triggered by the replacement of the previous president,” “There is no corruption” [in past acquisitions].... His choice of words is precise and no accident

Throwing Good Money [or Honor] After Bad

2011-10-18T13:12:00.000-07:00

When shit hits the proverbial fan of a corporate leader (or inexperienced trader) in the west, they might, in the panic of the moment, be more inclined to respond by "throwing good money after bad" in a desperate Hail-Mary attempt to miraculuously snatch victory from the seemingly inevitable jaws of defeat. Some Reg-D "Death Spiral" deals undoubtedly fall into this category as does Nick Leeson

Long-Term Memory?

2011-10-17T02:37:00.000-07:00

I worked with a guy who in the mid-nineties once claimed hush-hushedly to have structured a big series of "repair bonds" for the Olympus Corporation. He was not boasting, but trying to help. For this was interesting to me for no other reason than I was managing a reasonably-sized long-short book primarily in Japan, and such information hitherto was (except for precious few) completely unknown to

When Around the Bend the Yen Descends...

2011-10-05T13:58:00.000-07:00

In May of 2007, when almost everything seemed Hunky-Dory, the sober-minded BCA forecast EURJPY of >180. In a note of reply to this extrapolation of this prevailing trend into the future, I took a stab as to which side of the distribution the fat-tail might be hiding. With certainty, we now know where it was (Cass-1, BCA-Nil). Since The Reckoning began in earnest [and risk-off] pushed USDJPY below

Rolling Stocks

2011-10-04T08:56:00.000-07:00

Guns, ammo, foodstuffs, palladium, rare old photographs, P&G, cheap utilities, signed first-edition books, proficient food retailers with scale, a farm, water companies, TIPs, Norwegian Kronor, CRESY, RYN, Southern Queensland cotton farms, lowly-levered prime REITs in Paris, cheap big pharma, BDX, Gazprom, Lukoil, Total etc. I can think of many reasonable and liquid stores of value that may

Boob Tube

2011-09-28T13:01:00.000-07:00

British television sucks indeed! Hardly an escape from a day at the office in The City. One quick look at one small corner from this evening's TV Guide reveals the following... Jerry Bruckheimer's Chase The marshals search for a fugitive hedge fund fraudster who swindled his victims out of millions of dollars. However, their search becomes even more urgent when they discover a former Russian Mob

The AGony

2011-09-23T11:54:00.000-07:00

AGony AGast AGamemnon AGape AGgravat AGoraphobia AGgravated AGgression AGgrieve AGitated AGita AGnosia

Shit Happens (An ongoing Saga)

2011-09-21T05:47:00.000-07:00

During the six years that shorts have been waiting for the remarkable Greenhill & Co share price to diminish more dramatically, several of my children have seen the front and back of adolescence; flash memory has expanded exponentially in capacity while collapsing in price; all of my old iPods resemble the rather ridiculous-looking Motorola Flip-Phone with cheesy antenna; emerging markets have

Joyriding

2011-09-19T10:05:00.000-07:00

I couldn't help but smile with amusement at Kweku Abdoli's parting facebook post. Not because I ever threw the trader's equivalent of a "Hail Mary" pass. I've never countenanced such, and if I look introspectively, this is also perhaps my Achille's Heel, suffering as I do from excessive risk aversion. No. The smile-leading-to-guffaws ending in "Holy Fucking Shit!" was because I've been to my

Texan-Sized Bullshit

2011-08-14T01:41:00.000-07:00

Everything is bigger in Texas. People's confidence. Their sense of self-importance. Their huntin' and fishin' stories. Their cars. Their homesteads. Their universities. Their ruminants' horns. The size (and destructiveness) of their insects. The quantity of food on their plates, and consequently, the size of their bottoms. Oh, and lest I forget the size of their rhetorical bullshit, which

The Price is...ummm....errrr.... Wrong (Part 2)

2011-07-20T15:27:00.000-07:00

Many moons ago, while at university, I had a dog - a cross between a Chow-Chow and an Alsatian (the snout, eyes and dimension of the chow, with the shorter fur, muscularity, ears, and demeanor of the shepherd). Chow, as he was called, (named by a housemate at his moment of maximum apathy) had an iron constitution cultivated through years of his solo carousing, particularly his late night visits

The Other Kind of [Inflation]

2011-06-30T01:42:00.000-07:00

Grade inflation has been a growing problem through the Anglo-Saxon world for decades now. From the ridiculous "Everyone is a Winner" meme, to the intense distaste for grading on a curve it has become easier-than-ever for EVERYONE to do better [or at least appear to do so]. Perfection, it would seem, has become more ubiquitous, something to be cheered were it not for the total utter bullshit of

Limey Beans

2011-06-24T01:44:00.000-07:00

The English are moaning about how expensive things are. They don't know the half of it. A small Bag of Starbuck's Italian Roast Beans at my local (ground at 4-1/2 for my lovely, well-machined stainless Alessi stove-top expresso device) in Switzerland sets one back CHF8.50 (more than USD$10 for American readers). Same bag (though sometimes I go for the even-darker Sumatra or French-Roast) in "

A Quarter of a Century Later....

2011-05-15T11:31:00.000-07:00

In general, I admire the french civil service. Not everything. Not all the time. But both relatively and absolutely, their performance should give anti-Statists pause for thought about their position (not that such dogmatists will ever do so). Sometimes, however, they do fuck-up. Sometimes quite badly. Such as, for example, twenty-five years ago in New Zealand (youngsters see inset photo to the

'Tis a Shame There Is No More Shame

2011-05-11T13:26:00.000-07:00

So the Home Team managed to salvage a categorical victory after the embarassing whitewashing to Michael Lauer's defense team. Bravo, chaps! Well done! Hopefully this might be the start of some more serious flogging of the at least some of the more notorious contrapreneurs and cheaters of this past decade. It was sad (for the criminal justice system) that Lancer's Lauer slipped away. However, I

Break Out

2011-05-02T23:55:00.000-07:00

I caught a few moments of Tom Keene at the Milken Conference yesterday, on Bloomberg TV. I am ever-more amused by the ads run for the concentrated demographic of those who voluntarily watch real-time financial television, and have written about my indignation at the increasingly high-tech ones run by the FX Bucket Shops, a view sympathetically shared by my friends at FT-Alphaville. Almost as

WTF

2011-04-28T16:03:00.000-07:00

So Michael Lauer is free, and clear and free and clear. It is a shitty shitty day for justice, and a victory for extractors and contrapreneurs alike. Pump-and-dump is a rotten game cynically preying upon the ignorant, the greedy, ignorantly greedy and the greedily ignorant. Machiavellian schemes of orchestrated share ramping through related-party vehicles transacting amongst themselves is

I Heart Jack Lew

2011-04-22T03:56:00.000-07:00

Well-worth watching Charlie Rose's interview with Jack Lew. Consummately measured and balanced, uber-informed, politically astute and sensitive, Lew tackles most major political-economic issues facing the US, from taxes, deficits, inequality, healthcare, ageing & social security. He comes across with a knowledge one sees in one's BEST history teacher, with the demeanor of the best coach/father

25 Things I Learned in the 25 Years After My First 21 Years

2011-04-16T22:27:00.000-07:00

I have long wondered what they put in the drinking water at George Mason University. This recent post by Dr Bryan Caplan attracted much attention in the blogosphere. Whatever is in the water seems to be causing conjecture to morph into the realm of the categorically immutable. But perhaps this assuredness is merely part of his philosophical territory. It is so effective, it inspired me to reflect

Credit Where Credit is Due

2011-04-13T00:12:00.000-07:00

Shame on Michael Lewis (apparently suffering a bout of PJ O'Rourke syndrome) for his woeful Bloomberg piece satirizing of the Fed handling of disclosure relating to liquidity provision in the heat of the moment. I am all for satire and criticism and satirical criticism is even better. But one must be careful to be "more or less right", else one becomes a demagogue - using a kernel of truth or

Flat Tire

2011-04-05T15:14:00.000-07:00

One would have thought that the wisdom and experience accompanying age would improve one's wit and sense of humour. Of course, P.J. O'Rourke maybe the exception to this inferred rule. Whatever the case, O'Rourke's lame diatribe against urban cycling hosted by News Corp's dearth-of-humour broadsheet, the WSJ, makes one wonder why, with so many interesting events and ample public figures with

So Long (and thanks for the all the....)

2011-04-01T00:28:00.000-07:00

August 2008 now seems to be so far away (unless you are Jeff Gendell or similar). Most things have returned to "normal" (lower case "n"): Israeli's and Palestinians are fighting; Fox network presenters make nightly asses of themselves; Wealthy Russians battle amongst themselves for top rung on the BLING! ladder; BRICs (and most of what was formerly known as The Developing World") grow robustly;

Lipstick on a Pig

2011-03-15T10:11:00.000-07:00

Cliff Asness & colleagues have just published a paper demanding critics rethink the "Japanese equity markets are a momentum graveyard" thesis. They attempt to salvage the pursuit of price momentum in Japan by arguing that momo and value should be seen as a system, and not in isolation. Fair enough. As a result, they argue, momo strategies have utility in such a system, and therefore, the nil

Pyramid Scheme

2011-02-09T16:32:00.000-08:00

"Corrrrr......Blimey DM! $30,000,000,000 to $50,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 to $70,000,000,000 ?!??!!!!" That's what some were estimating the Mubarak family has smashed-n-grabbed (and pilfered and extracted) from three decades as errr.... ummm...Beach King in the land of the Pyramids. That seems like a lot of zeros, at least in comparison to Ben Ali (and his wife's family) who are reputed to

Bare Ruined Choirs

2011-02-07T16:36:00.000-08:00

OK, it's not THAT bad (cotton is at 1.74lb!!). Day-job. Family obligations. An occasional hard night of drinking. Etcetera. More importantly, little perspective to add that is worthy of the volume required to rise above the ambient noise and chatter of those extrapolating yesterday's trends into tomorrow. Yet the fact remains that eleven of my last fourteen posts remain in draft form. Stillborn.

Farewell A&P...

2010-12-13T06:22:00.000-08:00

So, farewell thenGreat Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co.(a.k.a. A&P. Waldbaum's, Pathmark,The Food Emporium, SuperFreshand Food Basics). Some would say that you were caught between a rockand a hard place. Others might suggest thatyou werejust a hard rockwhen you needed to be otherwise. My five year-old selffondly remembers eating cookies from open packages on the shelves of yourConfectionary Aisle...

Gifts For Someone With (Almost) Everything

2010-11-30T14:19:00.000-08:00

It's that time of year when loved ones buy loved ones that special gift...or, for the unlucky and ill-planned, whatever is left on the shelf. But buying gifts for the titans of finance, the men (and a few women) with almost everything (except a sense of thrift) is never easy. Enlightening books are likely to remain unread by the singularly-driven, whereas more thoughtful tokens such as a poem,

Sinkhole

2010-10-29T15:14:00.000-07:00

I have always been socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Not to the extreme in the sense insofar as I take no issues with debt raised for long-term investment be it education, R&D, trains, Chunnels, or the like, things likely to maintain value and use for many years, and which yield externalities that are in the Public Interest. Nor do I find fault with a bit of counter-cyclical

Dear Mr Cameron

2010-10-28T05:59:00.000-07:00

The Rt Hon Mr David Cameron Downing Street London SW1 UNITED KINGDOM 28 October, 2010 Dear Mr Prime Minister Quite the performance during Question Time yesterday. Such Passion! Such Fire! Such Resolve! You have started to make the most significant contribution of any politician in a generation (possibly two) to the cause of Austerity as a requisite cleanser for the moldy undergrowth of

Chelsea is Dead! or Why I Hate Urban Outfitters

2010-10-28T05:25:00.000-07:00

URBN has over the years been both a personal boon and bane. This City of Brotherly Love-originated retailed founded by selling incense, bongs, dope-leaf tee-shorts and ultra-cheap imported bohemian stuff to skint college students has been loved (nearly to death) by growth investors and momo humpers alike. For the reversion-oriented plunger this affection of seeming endless relative outperformance

Time Standing Still

2010-10-23T08:40:00.000-07:00

Serendipity took my family and I to our nation's capital city,Washington, DC, ostensibly for a family holiday. My son was taken by the shiny metal and technology of the Air & Space center, while my daughters preferred the Smithsonian Natural History museum. I was keen too, since although I had spent reasonable amounts of time in DC with friends who worked the political circuit, I'd never actually

DGDF? TGIF...

2010-10-08T09:21:00.000-07:00

ADAD. QE..QEII? IITM. YAFIYGI. EMRTW, RT? YSIC? FUBAR? UR POV - RGO LY TIPS AU CRB JPY CHF BRICS? UTM...DGDF FTASB?!? OMFG ONNTA. LMK SOL? IBTD. KYPO, TSP AWTTW: PDQ AFAHMASP, JMO! TGIF! BYOB. G2G POAHF (LOL) EOM

Who Needs PM's Anyway?

2010-10-01T09:35:00.000-07:00

The money-management business has indeed changed. One would be forgiven for wondering whether it even has anything at all to do with investment. While I have suspected such for a long time from mere observation of the long-only world, it was confirmed, again, today from an Advent Software Press release that I came across: About Advent Portfolio Exchange(R) Advent Portfolio Exchange(R) (APX) is an

Please Don't Eat The Daisies

2010-09-24T09:30:00.000-07:00

Like Doris Day, Carlson Capital's name is sprinkled with alliteration. And like her role referenced above, and the bucolic burbs of its setting, so Carlson Capital was caught and censured for disturbing otherwise calm waters, by violating Rule-105 - a polite reference to the rule prohibiting the practice of pounding secondaries before, and or into pricing, and covering (typically) via the offer .

Dog Days Revisited

2010-09-15T07:52:00.000-07:00

And so venerable Ginza department store operator Matsuya (Code #8237) continues to revert (or, choose one: has reverted; will revert more; will overshoot) to some ltime-honoured level commensurate with some long-term market market-memory. It's present cap is just below YEN30 billion, which could just as easily be YEN20billion as it was during the millennial puke a decade ago, and little would

ETFs For a Brave New World

2010-09-10T03:12:00.000-07:00

ETFs clearly can provide some advantages for obtaining otherwise-expensive-to-obtain exposures for thematically-oriented investors. More noteworthy perhaps is the way that such vehicles have captured the imagination of Promoters and Managers as a salvation for otherwise stagnant revenue growth. This has lead to a proliferation of ever-more-focused ETFs to cater to the evolving fancies of

Ask A Stupid Question

2010-09-02T01:43:00.000-07:00

I am sure that in readers' search for a quick buck and a sure thing they will appreciate the recent output from Cassandra's "quantitative" meat grinder which analysed the returns for the second trading week of September following a > 6.2% fall in August, where the first day of Sept falls on Wednesday, AND the return on such a first trading day of the month is greater 1.6% (when coincidental to a

Another One Bites The Dust

2010-08-31T00:45:00.000-07:00

Things formerly with integrity now seemingly compromised... Professional Cricket Sumo Professional Cycling High-Frequency Trading Professional Baseball FIFA Professional Tennis Municipal Bond Underwriting The Catholic Church Athletics US Congress UK Parliament Analyst Research Credit Ratings Banks Newtonian Physics The Stock Market The Food Pyramid Incentive Stock Options Reinsurance Brokerage

Pop-Quiz: Terms of Trade

2010-08-28T03:09:00.000-07:00

Terminology is important but often abused. Some employ it to obfuscate the truth. Others to legitimize something that oughtn't be. I doubt this Pop Quiz will ever be given to MBA students but I reckon it's worthy of a go.... Instructions: Choose the Word, Phrase or Answer that best describes its preceding passage: 1. It's nearing the end of the fiscal quarter. The CFO is concerned that leverage

Anchors Away

2010-08-17T05:59:00.000-07:00

Long before the internet bubble, synthetic CDOs, asset-swapping convertibles and high-frequency front-running, the sexy strategy which added numerous zeros to many-a-skeptical portfolio manager's trust fund was the dull but reliable strategy of shorting IPOs. This used to rank near the top of tried and trusty ways to, in a rare pursuit, beat the house. After all, there never was any satisfactory

Hello Myrna Loy

2010-08-12T03:17:00.000-07:00

Nineteen hundred and thirty-five was by most accounts another in a succession of crappy years. The dustbowl on the American plains, enactment of the Nuremberg Laws, a devastating Hurricane that slammed into Florida killing many hundreds though this paled to the devastation of Yangtze Floods that wiped out several hundred-thousands. This year also witnessed Italy's invasion of Ethiopia, as well as

What Goes Up Might Come Down - Less 20% or So....

2010-08-09T10:44:00.000-07:00

Having periodically spit venom at some notorious Japanese activists for pursuing business models that (at least in this observer's opinion) were rather obviously on a collision course to enrich themselves to a far greater extent than their less-fortunate investors, I was pleased to see the recent working paper released last quarter by Hamao, Kutsuna and Matsos entitled "Activist Investing in

Wily Wyly's

2010-08-02T03:28:00.000-07:00

I used to smile sophmorically at the sight of a Dentist named Dr Fang, or a Plastic Surgery clinic named Dr Tuck, just as I have long-chuckled at the sight of the The Wyly Brothers moniker in print. Monday morning quarterbacking is always easy, but I can tell you that there was always something fishy about the way their stocks traded (both Sterling Software and Sterling Commerce) - and now, of

Golden Castles?

2010-07-29T09:05:00.000-07:00

Many wise observers and practitioners from Keynes and Triffin to Roubini and Grantham have thought of Gold as a barbarous relic. Let it be said, to the delight of Goldbugs, that I frown upon such a pejorative (at least for the duration of this post). Gold is championed as a store of value because as Goldbugs rightly point out.... it's always been a store of value. No need for further elegant

Channelling Levi Strauss

2010-07-01T07:13:00.000-07:00

I have long been a proponent of the Levi Strauss approach to most highly-sought-after though long-odds pursuits. Of course I do not mean the Structuralist-School member of the Academie Francaise, but the utiilitarian SF-based purveyor of dry-goods, who kitted out the miner-forty-niners searching for the motherlode out west. Most never found what they sought, but Mr Strauss (the retailer) did

Ten Commandments For Fiscal Adjustment

2010-06-25T01:30:00.000-07:00

Never more relevant than this precise moment, the Ten Commandments for Fiscal Adjustment (in advanced Economies) have been proverbially carved into a semi-official tablet by IMF Director of Research, Dr Olivier Blanchard, And they are good, wise and just. Sufficiently so that the general polity should take careful note, else the Austerians, the facile macro-vigilantism of the electronic punting

Newton Rules!

2010-06-21T06:39:00.000-07:00

The inflation vs deflation debate rages unabated. Inflation skeptics buy bonds (even zeros!) whilst inflation bulls pile into gold, art and, for example, rare anythings. Austrians prescribe global vomit, whilst Keynsians seemingly prefer more of the same. If anything, the camps are becoming more polarised, with the World's Best PMs launching gold and gold-class shares, at the same time as the

Irony-Watch #6: Deactivating the Activists

2010-06-14T06:27:00.000-07:00

As readers will know, I dislike the sentiments of undeserved entitlement. Not that I include health-insurance, public transport or a basic social safety-net as entitlement, despite its pejorative coinage. Rather, what I find loathsome is the sense of entitlement that, for example, certain senior corporate managers display that abuses both shareholders and employees for the primary purpose of

Perfect Imperfection

2010-06-11T10:25:00.000-07:00

As a humble financial critic, I don't really "do" book reviews. But I will share a secret (though it won't be one for long) which relates to Tom Rachman's recently released (and amazingly, first) novel entitled "The Imperfectionists". In a form of literary "Pay It Forward", I chanced upon a review a few weeks ago in a broadsheet, a review that was so effusive as to pique my bullshit detector,

Farewell Then Hatoyama Yukio

2010-06-02T04:22:00.000-07:00

So farewell then Hatoyama Yukio Now the ex- Prime- Minister of Japan Despite making promises you couldn't keep - you achieved more than you know... Primarily by giving perspective to sentiments regarding our own FUBAR system(s). (with apologies to EJ Thribb aged 380 days) P.S. For proper insight and analysis on the subject, visit http://shisaku.blogspot.com/

No Soup For You!

2010-05-31T07:48:00.000-07:00

They wait nervously in line curling behind them outside the shopfront. A straight and orderly queue. No pushing. No standing too close to the counter, or unnecessarily entering the kiosk before one's moment. Eyes wandering everywhere but the server. Whatever you do: Don't stare. No smelly perfumes or wisecracks. And no idle chat or loud laughter while in line. "What's on today?", the young Greek

Japan Watch: An Important Emergent Trend

2010-05-27T01:58:00.000-07:00

There is a most troubling trend afoot in Japan. No, it is not the further perplexing descent of JGB yields, the failure of a newly appointed Finance Ministers to survive longer than the time it takes to slow-roast a nice Gigot, the SFP Value Realization Fund's attempt to block Matsuya's takeover defense provisions despite their inexorable slide into the sunset, or the lack of a third-handle on

Financial Mother Goose

2010-05-16T05:51:00.000-07:00

Hello all. It is a lazy Sunday. And so I thought I'd share some amusement between finishing a great read "My Father's Island" (which only took six years to get around to finally reading from Galapagos trip), and the springtime yard work which awaits... HUGE DIDDLE DIDDLE Huge diddle, diddle, The CFO fiddles, The 'counts to be released very soon; The CEO laughed To see the report, Knowing

Awe and Wonderment (A Brief History of)

2010-05-11T02:19:00.000-07:00

On October 19, 1987, I was driving home from work looking across the bleak industrial landscape beneath the Pulaski Skyway, with its flat-black stealth paint absorbing the last light of the day. Traffic moved normally, despite the momentous events of the day. No one was stopping to leap into the abyss below. I'd printed a Quotron sheet detailing the carnage for posterity. Jim Grant was being

Sovereign Shock and Awe

2010-05-07T03:26:00.000-07:00

I have long argued that preemptive action - in the form of a good (read: conservative) policy mix - should be the preferred route of governments. The upside vs. downside of pursuing pedal-to-the-metal policy mixes is now being witnessed (in Anglo-Saxon land). The marginal upside (and its positive externalities), on a probability-adjusted basis never, in my opinion, outweighed the risks to

What Glitters Is...Sweet??!??

2010-04-08T00:34:00.000-07:00

I met a chap while waiting in the queue to ascend the Grand Montets, after a particularly heavy snowfall. Unlike the ultra-gregarious Swedes, the loud but polite Brits, or the serious and contemplative back-country types with the Phat boards, shovel and extensible avalanche pole, he had his nose buried in Soros' latest book, as good as a conversation starter for an obsessive financial type as

CDA Biz to CDA Gov: Raise Taxes! (Wot?!???)

2010-03-29T10:26:00.000-07:00

According to the Globe & Mail, Canadian business executives say it's time to raise taxes? What?? Surely this is some mistake. What could they possibly be thinking? Is there something wrong with the water? Don't they know this is pure unadulterated heresy? Don't they believe (like their southern neighbours certainly do) this is akin to declaring "war" on their class and the future of the nation?

We Are All Zaitech Now

2010-03-29T00:59:00.000-07:00

Repo 105 has come and gone in the media - a mere Tourette's tic-of-a-reaction. Lots of shock and indignation (in which, surprisingly, NY law firms came out looking good), along with calls for some good ol "hang 'em high" Fuld-targetted vigilanteism, but not the amount of introspection one might expect. Former bank analyst, John Hempton, now CIO at Sydney Bronte Capital made the very important

"Serving the Nation's Dreams..."

2010-03-26T00:44:00.000-07:00

Did anyone else find irony in the [proposed] agreed acquisition of British National Lottery concessionaire, Camelot, by the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund? One wonders whether this presages the possibility that the hapless teachers will, in the future, find their benefits awarded as much by games of chance as by the investment acumen of their managers? "Serving the Nation's Dreams..." is Camelot's

In Praise of Free Lunches

2010-03-20T04:27:00.000-07:00

I enjoy skilled writing as much as I enjoy good debate. Former Ms. Equity Private, author of the occasional Finem Respice, and I believe more recently, ZeroHedge co-conspiratress, "Marla", provides both. In the past, I was flattered that she took yours truly to task over my lyrically-nostalgic view of the nobility inherent in Japanese paternalism, and the derision I heaped upon certain so-called

Matsuya - An SFP Pre and Post-Mortem

2010-03-14T12:33:00.000-07:00

Once in a while, whether by happenstance or serendippity, one does hit the proverbial bulls-eye. A few readers were kind enough to pay a compliments to yours truly over posts related to SFP Value Realization Fund and their Russian Roulette fun-and-games with one of my long-favored shorts, Matsuya Co Ltd (8237) published in late 2007 under the title Matsuya (8237) - Good Luck - (You'll Need it....

Farewell Hummer

2010-03-04T00:58:00.000-08:00

Farewell then Hummer,BLING wheels of choice to arschloecher theworld over.You aspired to be a monster-truck,which you achieved through monstrous symbolism.You began life as a large "Willyswith four-wheel drive",But you ended thethe same as other AMC flops...the Ambassadorthe Pacer,the Matador (5.9 litres!!!),the Spirit and, of course,the Gremlin.

Yankee Triumphalism Returns

2010-03-02T23:48:00.000-08:00

It wasn't but a few months ago the American Financial Press and critical observers (led by the seeming financial tabloid, the WSJ) were quiet as dormice given the great unraveling in the economy, markets and hubris. But with the double- top in the Euro spawned by Greece, and a [brief] interlude of global de-risking in fear of a double-dip, helped along nicely by a veritable gang-bang of the Euro

The Snookerer and The Snookered

2010-02-05T12:02:00.000-08:00

Traffic court where I used live was a real hoot. Everyone guilty of speeding, careless driving, driving without a license or insurance, illegal turns, (or yet worse) was hauled before the magistrate where he or she was presented with the opportunity to plead guilty or contest the charges. Fines were arbitrary, and there was a higly amusing in-between plea of "guilty with an explanation" - one

Big Brother is [Not] Watching You

2010-01-31T23:40:00.000-08:00

I rarely click on banner ads. But one from these folk aroused a morbid curiosity in yours truly that caused me to override my normal reticence. For those not wanting to click through and read in detail, it was a teaser for market surveillance software to flag less-than-salubrious activities of traders, one's customer's, PMs and one would imagine, those with capital commitment authority unable to

Channeling Outrage

2010-01-18T13:36:00.000-08:00

After smiling silently upon reading the rumble over at Barry Ritholtz' I must admit that, for my amusement, I am all for a good conspiracy theory purporting to explain the inexplicable - one that projects blame away from where it perhaps hurts most, or onto something that makes erstwhile sense out of randomness and/or seeming injustice, particularly on a canvass where The Bad Guys seems to

In Defense of The Case Against HiFTers

2010-01-12T03:44:00.000-08:00

In principal, I am reticent to contradict Burton Malkiel because I respect him, large, but I feel that I must raise a few salient points in regards to his recent FT Op Ed. He says essentially that over the years, trading costs have fallen (which is true); market-makers are useful (also reasonably true with caveats); he then nebulously defines HFT as computers closely proximate to the exchange

10 Surprises for 2010

2009-12-25T08:39:00.000-08:00

I can't help but the join the bull market in 2010 surprises. Here they are, like 'em or not....10. Obama administration despite pyrrhic healthcare victory sets sights on social security reform including some means-testing and tax and contribution holidays for those working longer than age 65. 9. The DGDF meme wilts. Carry-trades in entire anti-dollar complex implode. EM equity fares best (

dEAr sANta...

2009-11-28T15:21:00.000-08:00

dEAr sANta...I know it's crunch-time for you, the elves and Mme Claus, but nevertheless, I reckon I've been reasonably good (excepting that naughty thing or two you must already know about), and so with that in mind, I submit to you my 'modest', scaled-down Xmas list...A complete boxed set of "Black Adder" An end to whaling and wholesale plunder of the oceansSome seriously steep cuts in the US

"It's the Cop's....Run!"

2009-11-27T00:08:00.001-08:00

I was no angel/altar-person growing up. It was not an entirely mis-spent youth, but for a variety of reasons, not least suburban restlessness and boredom, I had my share of moments where we were up to no good of one variety or another, when someone, in a panic response to headlights, a flashlight baritone adult voices (whether real or imagined, whether the infraction minor or non-existent) would

That Goldman Sachs Xmas Party Menu (in Full)

2009-11-23T01:04:00.000-08:00

With the holiday season rapidly approaching, I managed to get my hands on the Goldman Sachs Xmas Party Menu for this year. I'm told it's not final, but this is what they are proposing (note the pretty ballsy choice of venue...)Goldman Sachs Holiday Fete - 2009 at the Palais VersaillesAPERITIFS & HORS D'OEUVRESFinest Golden Chartreuse ElixirDOM Benedictine Selection of Trappist 'Biere Belgique'

We're Sorry (but for what, we will not reveal...)

2009-11-17T12:04:00.000-08:00

I have always looked suspiciously upon the concept of Confession, particularly (but not limited to) when the Confession is not supported by deeds and substantive changes in behaviour. Surely, any self-respecting deity, at the very least to keep the others in-line, would kick a bit of ass. So I wondered aloud whether there was some higher spiritual purpose when I read the following... Goldman

Balderdash (n) - fiddle-faddle, piffle (trivial nonsense), hokum

2009-11-17T11:20:00.000-08:00

Macro Man's mediations on (but not limited to) things macro - particularly FX - always deserve a read and careful consideration. His attention was caught by Fed Chairman Bernanke's lightweight waffling at the New York Economic Club last night. I concur with his amusement at the inversion of the Chairman's focus. But the sentence that caught my attention most was the following, contained as it was

Zooooooooooming

2009-11-13T01:40:00.000-08:00

Does anyone remember Ayrton Senna?? Amazing as he was, I do not hear mention of his name often these days. While I do not watch CNBC very often either, I happened upon it last night for a few moments, and was transfixed by the deepening black sallowness of Maria Bartiromo's eyes, punctuation marks on time passed since her entry into the mile-high club. This was followed by an uber-slick,

More Sober-Minded "Hosanna's"

2009-11-11T02:26:00.000-08:00

All kidding aside, the recent delusional religious rationalisations by Varley and Blankfein beg a more serious reply, the best I've seen which is in Marshall Auerback's measured retort entitled Attention Mr Blankfein, posted over at New Deal 2.0. Marshall deserves reading not because his analyses are unusually lucid and hyperbole-free (which they always are), but because he always translates them

Hosanna!!

2009-11-09T12:59:00.000-08:00

Salacious lies!! Goldman Sachs Press officers and executives had quite a day defusing all the fallout from CEO Lloyd Blankfein's so-called "own goal" (shooting himself in the foot for our American readers) by suggesting the $20 billion GS bonus pool is kosher because GS is doing ...ahem...."God's Work". Some of their 'official' statements are collected below: "GS will not ask its employees to

The First Call Before The First Call

2009-11-07T14:00:00.000-08:00

At one end of the spectrum, you have so-called informationless traders who are the cheap bastards of the equity investment world. Not only do they desire to pay as little as possible to trade but many want/demand/expect to actually BE paid in the form of rebates. One might call them suppliers of liquidity, and they are desperate to be first in the queue. SO desperate are they, that they are

Plus ça Change, Plus...

2009-11-04T02:32:00.000-08:00

With some trepidation, I attended a high school reunion recently at the urging of a couple of old school chums with whom I remain good friends. They are good fun and we had much to talk about despite their marked drift rightward in the political continuum, despite the night ending with one of them not speaking to me after a debate on immigration during which I highlighted the amusing paradox

Cassandra Does Tokyo

Liar Liar Pants on Fire

Final Result: ZH Mob-417, PK-4

So Long (and thanks for the all the....)

Pleasure Principles

A Farewell DingDong

No Virginia, Tin-Foil Hats Do Not Help....

New Year's Eve Austerity Ball Menu

Burnt Out

Xmas Presents for All!!! (...Red States that is)

End Run??!?

Lowest Hanging Fruit

Caught Out

Payback M*#*erF$#(R!!

False Labeling ??!!?

Rainbow Warrior - Part Deux

Crisis Style Guide

Memo From ICAB

dEaR sanTA

Monkey on Your Back

Olympus: Capitulation

Broke, Broker, Brokest

Buried Treasure

Kikukawa Quits - Olympus soars (but why?) or Covering Up The Cover-up

Throwing Good Money [or Honor] After Bad

Long-Term Memory?

When Around the Bend the Yen Descends...

Rolling Stocks

Boob Tube

The AGony

Shit Happens (An ongoing Saga)

Joyriding

Texan-Sized Bullshit

The Price is...ummm....errrr.... Wrong (Part 2)

The Other Kind of [Inflation]

Limey Beans

A Quarter of a Century Later....

'Tis a Shame There Is No More Shame

Break Out

WTF

I *Heart* Jack Lew

25 Things I Learned in the 25 Years After My First 21 Years

Credit Where Credit is Due

Flat Tire

So Long (and thanks for the all the....)

Lipstick on a Pig

Pyramid Scheme

Bare Ruined Choirs

Farewell A&P...

Gifts For Someone With (Almost) Everything

Sinkhole

Dear Mr Cameron

Chelsea is Dead! or Why I Hate Urban Outfitters

Time Standing Still

DGDF? TGIF...

Who Needs PM's Anyway?

Please Don't Eat The Daisies

Dog Days Revisited

ETFs For a Brave New World

Ask A Stupid Question

Another One Bites The Dust

Pop-Quiz: Terms of Trade

Anchors Away

Hello Myrna Loy

What Goes Up Might Come Down - Less 20% or So....

Wily Wyly's

Golden Castles?

Channelling Levi Strauss

Ten Commandments For Fiscal Adjustment

Newton Rules!

Irony-Watch #6: Deactivating the Activists

Perfect Imperfection

Farewell Then Hatoyama Yukio

No Soup For You!

Japan Watch: An Important Emergent Trend

Financial Mother Goose

Awe and Wonderment (A Brief History of)

Sovereign Shock and Awe

What Glitters Is...Sweet??!??

CDA Biz to CDA Gov: Raise Taxes! (Wot?!???)

Payback M#erF$#(R!!

I Heart Jack Lew