tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post8839781253119749598..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: Dear Jeff"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-3043476794644937982012-11-26T12:58:25.342-08:002012-11-26T12:58:25.342-08:00Vlade-Good question.
(1) I was interested in long-...Vlade-Good question.<br />(1) I was interested in long-term asset prices expressed in terms of each other. "Short Yen"I just don't think of as an asset. Cotton in terms of gold is easy to conceptualize.<br /><br />(2) I think IF the JPYUSD moves towards 125 a lot of Japanese equities will double. I think they will do it quicker. I'd like to think I can pick more than few while "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-84555249688181761662012-11-26T05:25:24.638-08:002012-11-26T05:25:24.638-08:00Cassie, why do you beleve that JPY equities is a b...Cassie, why do you beleve that JPY equities is a better trade than simply go short JPY? "Normalizing" (i.e. JPY goes to 120) will yields 50% profit - and I doubt that a broad basket of JPY equities would match that (especially after deducting the cost of the FX hedge). Of course you could get more for some research, but will the amount of research pay for itself compared to the pure vladenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-81025147174861291772012-11-25T13:45:14.865-08:002012-11-25T13:45:14.865-08:00Christine, all valid points you make. But all soft...Christine, all valid points you make. But all softs are squishy (no pun intended), and all the softs are in the same very long-term vicinity in relation to their long-term prices vs a hunk of gold (my main point). The long-term environmental and malthusian pressures will ultimately drive the gold/softs terms of trade back to less divergent levels than the combined gold-bubble/softs bear has "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-51221344683914533212012-11-21T19:39:52.542-08:002012-11-21T19:39:52.542-08:00Thanks for highlighting all these bullish, albeit...Thanks for highlighting all these bullish, albeit slightly long-term, arguments on cotton. <br /><br />I am constructive on cotton prices as well, but one main concern for me is its record level of stocks (which largely explained why prices plummeted). However, stocks held outside of China are only marginally higher - in other words, virtually all of the global stocks build-up after the crash wehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12216594858046471676noreply@blogger.com