tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post7657680069473066750..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: "Camille's Reclining" Declining"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-69610955447825339042009-02-08T17:52:00.000-08:002009-02-08T17:52:00.000-08:00Good exchange Cass & RJ. Fyi Cass think it was...Good exchange Cass & RJ. Fyi Cass think it was the Sunday Times who had an article bout 2 weeks ago on how the auction houses had made impressionist paintings fashionable purchases for the "nouveaus", a trend that seems to continue to this day.<BR/>Deflationary overshoot in the markets yes, but am still waiting for the full main st fallout (i.e. A to C of inflation (not hyper) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-20465124118521851182009-02-08T12:49:00.000-08:002009-02-08T12:49:00.000-08:00Representative Kanjorski (PA): 550 Billion Draw D...Representative Kanjorski (PA): 550 Billion Draw Down on Sept 19, 2008<BR/><BR/>http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ca2_1234032281<BR/><BR/>Kanjorski, "At 2 minutes, 20 seconds into this C-Span video clip, Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania explains how the Federal Reserve told Congress members about a "tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of $550 billion Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-11589963686256788602009-02-08T10:22:00.000-08:002009-02-08T10:22:00.000-08:00Gold is to paper currencies as an agnostic is to c...Gold is to paper currencies as an agnostic is to church. It's a matter of faith.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-59582070263757970642009-02-07T21:23:00.000-08:002009-02-07T21:23:00.000-08:00Buying gold miners mean taking on company manageme...Buying gold miners mean taking on company management, country, credit, dilution risks etc. The cult of equity still permeates too much of conventional 'investment' strategy. <BR/><BR/>I don't think the world economy is going to collapse back into the dark ages (though risk of war for political reasons has risen). It all comes down to what the endgame of too much US debt will entail. <BR/><chweehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01758383262203711273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-46824744403775570162009-02-07T18:18:00.000-08:002009-02-07T18:18:00.000-08:00Why would you own gold outright?Why wouldn't y...Why would you own gold outright?<BR/><BR/>Why wouldn't you just buy calls on levered gold miners with debt maturities in 2011+?<BR/><BR/>It seems to me that the delta with gold miners is much >1, just like it was for iron ore miners and other commodity companies during the last commodities cycle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-61313455300035313812009-02-07T07:59:00.000-08:002009-02-07T07:59:00.000-08:00There seems to be a critical feature about gold th...There seems to be a critical feature about gold that too many anti-gold folks (who can come up with a lot of sophisticated sounding reasons) keep forgetting. It's really really hard to get more of it out of the ground. <BR/><BR/>Oil? Yes, we'll run out of oil. But in the meantime, we don't have the storage facility to store all the oil that the Saudis, Iranians, OPEC et al are pumping like chweehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01758383262203711273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-46076531075532945902009-02-06T12:13:00.000-08:002009-02-06T12:13:00.000-08:00RJ Then structure a trade that has a better payoff...RJ <BR/><BR/>Then structure a trade that has a better payoff pattern in the event you're wrong - short wider 1yr OTM put spread to purchase the 1 yr OTM Call. or sell 5% OTM put to buy 2 10% OTM calls (or whatever advanatgeous strike combo makles sense). At least then you've got some vig. <BR/><BR/>-C-Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-67458017806775378912009-02-06T10:52:00.000-08:002009-02-06T10:52:00.000-08:00Thanks for the response Cass. You are, of course,...Thanks for the response Cass. <BR/><BR/>You are, of course, right. But I guess the fulcrum for me is Bernanke. The man literally does not get it; the market, one way or another IS going to clear. But he has no idea because he’s never done a day of real business in his life. And as the deflationary forces persist and worsen he isn’t going to take it lying down. I think it is an even money Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-23277067783648391232009-02-06T09:50:00.000-08:002009-02-06T09:50:00.000-08:00RJ - You make good and sensible points, and I argu...RJ - <BR/><BR/>You make good and sensible points, and I argue with little. My point is not to diss gold. Moldbug suggests our diference (mine and his) is one one of tactical vs. strategic, and this is a charitable way of friends most respectfully agreeing to disagree. <BR/><BR/>I would suggest my skepticism on the gold price action is contextually-basedl, and not fundamental. My visceral opinionAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-69559942749715443292009-02-06T09:16:00.000-08:002009-02-06T09:16:00.000-08:00Cass,I’m really struggling with the fact that so m...Cass,<BR/><BR/>I’m really struggling with the fact that so many reasoned people, whose opinions I respect, are veering towards the ‘gold is bubble’ meme. <BR/><BR/>First off lets take price alone; what kind of bubble peaks 20% above its old high? TMT goes hundreds of multiples parabolic, housing and CRE (and the debt behind them) shoot the moon, treasuries (maybe rightly so) plumb century like Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-73845604085547634052009-02-06T09:02:00.000-08:002009-02-06T09:02:00.000-08:00One would have to agree that Treasuries are toast ...One would have to agree that Treasuries are toast longer-term. But gold, there's the rub. What will the USD be worth 10 years from now is perhaps a better question than what gold will be worth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-88122988521971363832009-02-06T03:34:00.000-08:002009-02-06T03:34:00.000-08:00"So yes, price matters. Homes bought in hot market..."So yes, price matters. Homes bought in hot markets this decade, tech stocks, EM bonds and stocks bought mid-decade, US Bonds and perhaps Gold bought now, are also reasonable candidates to suffer Dr Gachet's curse."<BR/><BR/>Do you also think US first-lien, floating rate loans are a reasonable candidate?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com