tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post751263280924629733..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: Reprint of Bulldog Sauce Letter to Steel (in full)"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-28031301702413098542011-03-14T05:34:23.481-07:002011-03-14T05:34:23.481-07:00To give a bit more detail on the Liberty Square in...To give a bit more detail on the Liberty Square involvement: the Fido partner @ LSAM quit the business in 2005 (John Hickling). Timing is everything. LSAM got into the deal because Tom Niedermeyer (ex MS and Teton with completely rational- really- George Noble) met at a conference in the 90s, became pals, invested in each others funds. Tom "knows" Japan (except that they don't Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-34306468058731398532007-06-14T03:21:00.000-07:002007-06-14T03:21:00.000-07:00C,--The distribution of outcomes of highly shorted...C,<BR/><BR/>--The distribution of outcomes of highly shorted stocks has very fat tails AT BOTH ENDS--<BR/><BR/>I guess that would be expected of any investment that is leveraged, fear/greed being multiplied by x (probably an exponent, actually). The fat tail 216 S&P low in October '87 became 181 for the future - a 35% difference.<BR/><BR/>It would be interesting to know, however, if there is Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-46530917319663577842007-06-13T15:31:00.000-07:002007-06-13T15:31:00.000-07:00Shorting is an unusual game. Rather than shorting...Shorting is an unusual game. Rather than shorting inflated stocks for the sake of inflation, I look for stocks that are heavily shorted and then add in some detective work. I agree with Cassandra that the result of heavily shorted stock can be higher than normal binary outcome. No doubt I have been wrong before, so I am ready to hedge if necessary. The only thing I'm expecting is an extreme Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-17311106869702437972007-06-13T10:40:00.000-07:002007-06-13T10:40:00.000-07:00CB - What is the Liverpool FC song relevant here.....CB - What is the Liverpool FC song relevant here...."You;ll Never Walk Alone" ?? The distribution of outcomes of highly shorted stocks has very fat tails AT BOTH ENDS. On one hand, the shorts get it very right, but they often get it very wrong BEFORE they get it right. Academic research shows high short-interest as an inverse short-term indicator but a useful long-term return generator (if you "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-34206616876256802002007-06-13T10:26:00.000-07:002007-06-13T10:26:00.000-07:00DRYS% of float short - 48.33DRYS<BR/><BR/>% of float short - 48.33Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-20817142710992061622007-06-13T09:48:00.000-07:002007-06-13T09:48:00.000-07:00Thanks. I cannot bring myself to short the high-be...Thanks. <BR/><BR/>I cannot bring myself to short the high-beta, real asset portions of "the liquidity trade". I can choose not to be long them, but continuation of the status quo till lord-knows- when will mean assets ratchet up....again. At this stage I'd rather sell the speculative portions and buy the value bits yielding 10% downside bu say 30% upside than go for 40% or 50% upside with the "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-14943541150364508172007-06-13T09:20:00.000-07:002007-06-13T09:20:00.000-07:00Yes, I owe you one. So here are my two picks. Tak...Yes, I owe you one. So here are my two picks. Take it with grain of salt. <BR/><BR/>Put positions on DRYS(Nasdaq). What's with the Greeks and their ships?!! <BR/>http://www.weedenco.com/welling/archive/sb/v07i04sblogo.asp <BR/><BR/>Second pick is obvious. If you don't like REITs you'll like SRS(Amex). Just watch out for the gaps.<BR/><BR/>-piAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-43494773996845584332007-06-13T06:24:00.000-07:002007-06-13T06:24:00.000-07:00I am not certain I am the right person to do this,...I am not certain I am the right person to do this, but I'll try. I do not know the evolution of how Lichtenstein hooked up with Nishi & Tanaka, nor do I know how Steel enrolled ex-Fido folk Liberty Square into SPJ. Perhaps it was a Wharton connection. Until 2002, Steel in the USA was a two-bit player, typically harassing or green-mailing sub-$100mm co's into buybacks, capital-structure "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-6477260719199589202007-06-12T17:34:00.000-07:002007-06-12T17:34:00.000-07:00Pardon the ignorance but could you expand upon SPJ...Pardon the ignorance but could you expand upon SPJ and Warren Lichtenstein? What kind of nefarious activity has this group engaged in the past? Would you say their kind of game is unethical from Western point of view or Japanese point of view? If he's anything like Gordon Gekko, who by the way will reappear as a hedge fund manager in a new movie next year, he should be in jail.<BR/><BR/>-piAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com