tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post5338845332990269257..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: Bold Imagination"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-67690389291919522792007-05-09T19:51:00.000-07:002007-05-09T19:51:00.000-07:00As I recall it, one of the plausible explanations ...As I recall it, one of the plausible explanations advanced for the decline of the euro after its inception was that European savers who had previously diversified risk through Francs, Marks, Guilders etc., were disinvesting from the Euro, principally into dollars.<BR/>Forex laws were liberalized in Japan about 10 years ago, but at that time J. banks were too preoccupied with their own solvency toAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-54160788640219510462007-05-08T07:09:00.000-07:002007-05-08T07:09:00.000-07:00I cannot imagine the Europeans voluntarily committ...I cannot imagine the Europeans voluntarily committing economic suicide by permitting prolonged strength of Euro coincidental to increasing trade account deficits, while Japan, with persistent surpluses and weak currency makes hay so to speak. I think they could muster the political will for tight money (as they've historically been inclined) if the fight upon inflation were global. But they will "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-87239103777518959442007-05-08T06:25:00.000-07:002007-05-08T06:25:00.000-07:00For this forecast to come true, two things need to...For this forecast to come true, two things need to happen. First, Europe has to avoid taking steps to proactively weaken the euro as EUR/JPY continues to march higher. As ECB tightening winds to a close, there will be a commensurate rise in the risk of currency intervention from Europe. I don;t know if it will happen, but the risks will rise.<BR/><BR/>Secondly, one has to presume that the Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.com