tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post5182234494960859110..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: Beyond Greed"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-48460010852484843442008-05-23T07:02:00.000-07:002008-05-23T07:02:00.000-07:00moldy,your points are well taken. but are folks re...moldy,<BR/><BR/>your points are well taken. but are folks really buying stuff now like they bought tech in 1999, or are they buying stuff now like they bought mortgage backed CDOs etc. in 2002?<BR/><BR/>the distinction, I think, is important. 99 tech really was a magnet for money, the internet really was a new technology and a new way of doing business. And how many Googles and eBays did you needAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-677768721668375212008-05-22T22:34:00.000-07:002008-05-22T22:34:00.000-07:00zanon,There's a reason I don't have Cassie's job! ...zanon,<BR/><BR/>There's a reason I don't have Cassie's job! I wouldn't even dream of trying to trade PMs in the short term. The quickening has waited 75 years. It could easily wait another 75.<BR/><BR/>It's rational to exchange dollars for commodities if the exchange ratio of the latter to the former will increase in the future. But if you think this, it should be based on better-than-averageMencius Moldbughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16472157249344139282noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-72210290919692791582008-05-22T13:44:00.000-07:002008-05-22T13:44:00.000-07:00Hi Moldy,Good to see you continue your commodity d...Hi Moldy,<BR/><BR/>Good to see you continue your commodity discussions here.<BR/><BR/>Since you posted your Goldenstein articles on UR, GLD has fallen about 15% and is hovering between 85-90. Not quite the quickening moldbugs hoped for, but it’s not obvious that the dollar is any less debauched today than it was 3 months ago.<BR/><BR/>I guess I’m not sure why you disagree with Ted. If short Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-79467142753120198342008-05-22T12:18:00.000-07:002008-05-22T12:18:00.000-07:00Patrick,That's a fascinating question and I wish I...Patrick,<BR/><BR/>That's a fascinating question and I wish I knew the answer. At a certain price level oil, simply in BTU cost, gets outcompeted by other energy sources - the supply of oil is restricted in a vaguely gold-like way, the supply of coal is not, and CTL always works. So oil it cannot go to $500, at least not in today's dollars. <BR/><BR/>So, in the long run and the big picture, no.Mencius Moldbughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16472157249344139282noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-7352395898692174022008-05-22T05:17:00.000-07:002008-05-22T05:17:00.000-07:00Moldy,I admit I don't know the right price. IF on...Moldy,<BR/>I admit I don't know the right price. IF one begins from point of departure that fiat paper is worthless, no price for stuff is sufficient. I don't subscribe to that point of view so long as there is law, order, reasonably respected rules and a supply of paper not corrupted to the point of the Zim unit. Every other measure of value can be considered in relative terms. IF one is "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-23491530378018283752008-05-21T22:41:00.000-07:002008-05-21T22:41:00.000-07:00Mencius,Do you put oil in the same category as the...Mencius,<BR/><BR/>Do you put oil in the same category as the PM's? It seems that the inventory storage is mostly taking the form of leaving the oil in the ground. I was reading that most oil producing countries are now pumping below potential. Could oil be the new mold?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-39216544180182939982008-05-21T18:18:00.000-07:002008-05-21T18:18:00.000-07:00The trouble is that Masters' economics is just pla...The trouble is that Masters' economics is just plain wrong. (Here's a <A HREF="http://hsgac.senate.gov/public/_files/052008Masters.pdf" REL="nofollow">direct link</A> to his testimony.) Moreover, he is wrong in exactly the same way that silver bug <A HREF="http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-20-08.html" REL="nofollow">Ted Butler</A> - who is the intellectual heir of the Hunts, if anyone is - isMencius Moldbughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16472157249344139282noreply@blogger.com