tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post4189247012068615338..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: Feedback Trading's Hollow Victory"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-54097178575505651982008-03-19T22:47:00.000-07:002008-03-19T22:47:00.000-07:00Isn't part of the issue with gold that it isn't a ...Isn't part of the issue with gold that it isn't a promise? How did shares in toothpaste companies fare in Argentina or Russia after their economies went down the drain?<BR/><BR/>It looks to me like the world's experiences with fiat currencies demonstrate that one has to jump out at certain times. This may or may not be the time to prepare to jump out of the dollar.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-25307143376457473932008-03-19T19:36:00.000-07:002008-03-19T19:36:00.000-07:00While I hold no brief for feedback traders, commod...While I hold no brief for feedback traders, commodity or otherwise, and in fact am quite pleased to see them getting pasted - irrespective of the damage to my own puny book - I must resume my efforts to educate or at least indoctrinate you on the weird relationship between toothpaste and gold.<BR/><BR/>When you, or another investment professional like you, buy a toothpaste factory or a share Mencius Moldbughttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16472157249344139282noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-66933406341724487052008-03-18T13:51:00.000-07:002008-03-18T13:51:00.000-07:00And there it is again, a $2 crude pump into the cl...And there it is again, a $2 crude pump into the closes on the NYMEX ... 10th time in a row this happens.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-88439261531132669002008-03-18T06:33:00.000-07:002008-03-18T06:33:00.000-07:00Cass,I agree wholeheartedly with regards to equity...Cass,<BR/><BR/>I agree wholeheartedly with regards to equity markets. And to that you can add the unknown but imaginable changes that ETF's and index funds have added to the mix. But I resist the notion, except in the most general terms, that 'prices are prices'. Ag prices, in the absence of unusual circumstances, are determined on a very uneven playing field - Cargill, say, on one side and a Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-85168429002010406662008-03-18T04:41:00.000-07:002008-03-18T04:41:00.000-07:00Charles, this thought experiment was a result not ...Charles, this thought experiment was a result not of distaste for the V. Niederhoffers & Covels of the world, but as an attempt to understand why - stylistically - things are the way they are. I believe there is little distinguishment between markets, instruments, etc. Contracts are contracts, prices are prices in the land of the systematic, all are equally playable in this game. My point of "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-67381221735568280242008-03-18T03:59:00.000-07:002008-03-18T03:59:00.000-07:00Yeah, OK. So, I had one go at it, then thought the...Yeah, OK. So, I had one go at it, then thought the best tactic here would be to go out and renew my ritalin prescription. It helped. A bit.<BR/><BR/>Are you not failing to distinguish between equity and commodities markets here? And, in the case of the latter, hard and soft? I get the feeling you're looking at wheat (or cotton, really) and railing as a fund manager. Correct me if my wrong, no Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1303418796683722192008-03-17T18:13:00.000-07:002008-03-17T18:13:00.000-07:00There's something weird going on in the NYMEX. ust...There's something weird going on in the NYMEX. ust check the Time&Sales of the last 9 regular sessions. EVERY session had a $1 or more pump into the close.<BR/><BR/>Also, GS, of "superspike" fame, is now putting out a research report per week with large price targets for oil (150-175-200)...<BR/><BR/>One also should not forget the Summer'06 and January'07 downward manipulation by GS when they Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-17037368968169865792008-03-17T17:42:00.000-07:002008-03-17T17:42:00.000-07:00Isn’t this question of the commodity bull breaking...Isn’t this question of the commodity bull breaking just a corollary to whatever Ben and the boys have in store? When they went 50/50 in the beginning, it signaled to me that they were in ‘ depression prevention’ mode, and the radical was to be expected, if one is on the up with Ben’s writings and speeches. Thus, moon-shots for the commod complex. As I meander your logic Cassandra, and agree Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-30334352250879761442008-03-17T13:09:00.000-07:002008-03-17T13:09:00.000-07:00Minor-league corrosive deflation is a head-and-sho...Minor-league corrosive deflation is a head-and-shoulders better outcome than bank-runs and the whole selling of credit for government security. We should be so lucky to escape with such low-level abrasions.<BR/><BR/>The commodity thing is itself dependent upon leverage. Some is granted inherently by the exchanges and the nature of the leveraged contracts, but others requires lines and credit. "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-68450063336108597012008-03-17T12:30:00.000-07:002008-03-17T12:30:00.000-07:00To quote Yogi Berra, it's like deja vu all over ag...To quote Yogi Berra, it's like deja vu all over again!<BR/><BR/>Surely the same could have been written about the "fundamental" quant-based strategies, epitomized by Global Alpha, that were phenomenally successful (indeed, one might argue, hegemonic in certain spheres)...until they weren't. <BR/><BR/>Trend followers will presumably meet the same type of end, and while they are indeed a Macro Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12324967552369915949noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-2828688869653389092008-03-17T12:03:00.000-07:002008-03-17T12:03:00.000-07:00I have some opinions in regards to feedback tracki...I have some opinions in regards to feedback tracking and traders, but for this post, I hope I didn't use them in the pejorative. The thugs are people who push markets at public expense for parochial gain. Maybe, like the mythical but archetypical Col Nathan Jessup, they/it is a necessary evil. But to arrive at that conculsion, one should play around with the thought experiment as I've done - "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-81652320855554206752008-03-17T11:57:00.000-07:002008-03-17T11:57:00.000-07:00Ahhh, mmm... such an excellent post (again).So, th...Ahhh, mmm... such an excellent post (again).<BR/><BR/>So, the thugs have taken over the watering-hole. What should the thirsty do? Hard to defeat the thugs. Probably must find/create/conjure a new watering-hole. It will take a little time for thugs to find it, especially if they are in a nasty fight over who gets to rule the old watering-hole.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com