tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post117018467221517269..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: Carry Carry Quite Contrary"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1170523415027013082007-02-03T09:23:00.000-08:002007-02-03T09:23:00.000-08:00It will be a tough handicap when protectionism fir...It will be a tough handicap when protectionism first goes head-to-head with Wal-Mart's weekly circular, but I take it as a foregone conclusion that American baby-boomers will have opted overwhelmingly for the FDR/Bourque-White ticket by 2016. And yes, the obvious moral and economic insufficiencies of the nations that hold the world's money are beyond doubt. But do you think they even get it? The Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1170505959079320472007-02-03T04:32:00.000-08:002007-02-03T04:32:00.000-08:00Charles observed why would Japan and China do anyt...Charles observed<BR/><I> why would Japan and China do anything but follow the route of least resistance and silently provide the fuel that keeps the hallucination intact?</I><BR/><BR/>The answer is because the neo-liberals are eventually going to lose to rapid populists on the trade issue like Schumer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1170493244179492642007-02-03T01:00:00.000-08:002007-02-03T01:00:00.000-08:00Cassandra--Completely with you in spirit, but none...Cassandra--<BR/><BR/>Completely with you in spirit, but none of this even happens without the utopian addiction to consumer goods that characterizes the modern United States. And, given that seemingly perfect, self-sustaining and currently eternal system (entropy does not, by definition, exist in utopia), why would Japan and China do anything but follow the route of least resistance and silently Charles Butlerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00486529931043507880noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1170352538778947312007-02-01T09:55:00.000-08:002007-02-01T09:55:00.000-08:00The problem I have with PPP and relative interest ...The problem I have with PPP and relative interest rate models is that they <I>may</I> be used as justifications to ignore the realiites of the international monetary system as drawn-up and multilaterally agreed. I don't even have a problem with those who have gripes about it. BUT do not abuse the laws of economics or employ pathetic demagoguery to weasel parochial advanatge from other "Cassandra"https://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1170311302979369912007-01-31T22:28:00.000-08:002007-01-31T22:28:00.000-08:00What is "fair value" for a currency? One measure o...What is "fair value" for a currency? <BR/>One measure of a currency's value, purchasing power parity (PPP), was estimated by the OECD as 128 for the yen in 2005; PPP of the Big Mac Index in 2005 was around 105 (I think). Given the huge assumptions made in both these estimates and the problems generated by cross-border price inelasticity, the current exchange rate of 120 doesn't seem so badly awryAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1170239033722929072007-01-31T02:23:00.000-08:002007-01-31T02:23:00.000-08:00This all interestingly coincides with the reappear...This all interestingly coincides with the reappearance this week of "news" items, placed certainly at the urging of certain intermediaries, on the foreign currency home mortgage in the Spanish press (replete with disclaimers and exhortations to consult an "expert" first). 2001 was the last time this beast showed up on the consumer radar and otherwise sensible folk suddenly found themselves Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1170212915437142332007-01-30T19:08:00.000-08:002007-01-30T19:08:00.000-08:00But they've overbuilt their export sector so much ...But they've overbuilt their export sector so much that without the undervalued currency subsidy there will be "confusion in the market", as they so like to say. That would be especially so because a significant fraction of the Chinese trade surplus seems to be but a part of the Japanese surplus in disguise, as so much of the value of China's surplus is in imported components which it just Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com