tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post116723526998921259..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: Some 2007 Prognostications"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1168449368472068722007-01-10T09:16:00.000-08:002007-01-10T09:16:00.000-08:00Thank you for the link -- fascinating site and ana...Thank you for the link -- fascinating site and analysis. What you wrote (scarily) made a lot of sense to me, especially:<BR/>"I think we are being setup for failure here in a way similar to the way misreporting the price level "builds in" an inevitable correction -- because debt grows "too quickly" to the extent inflation is being misreported. If risk is similarly mis-priced, then too many Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1167711837887794572007-01-01T20:23:00.000-08:002007-01-01T20:23:00.000-08:00Thanks for the Janszen reference. What he writes ...Thanks for the Janszen reference. What he writes makes intuitive sense to me (I've gathered that intuitive sense is not much valued on economic blogs but I'm new to all this and and probably understand a fourth -- at best -- of what I read [RGE, Cassandra, The Big Picture] so intuition is for me more 'reliable' than analysis). <BR/>I think what you were saying is that "deflation vs inflation" Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1167673776664007742007-01-01T09:49:00.000-08:002007-01-01T09:49:00.000-08:00"But look ahead (given continuing deficits & imbal..."But look ahead (given continuing deficits & imbalances and no policy actions):" <BR/>... that's what I'm trying to do, because I don't think that any of the politicians will take anyone's good advice. (Analogy that jumps to mind: global warning). <BR/>I don't think anyone will step up. <BR/>(Although in reading someone's blog-and-comments, there were references to Paul Volcker having raised Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1167591865447578732006-12-31T11:04:00.000-08:002006-12-31T11:04:00.000-08:00I used the analogy before that the US economy is w...I used the analogy before that the US economy is walking a ridgeline on one side deflation, on the other inflation. During times of balance and normalcy, the walls of the valleys below the ridgline are gently sloped like the Appalachians. Verring to one side of the other means stereotypical recession or mild & elevated inflation. During times of great imbalance, they are steep like the Dolomites.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1167589629951904782006-12-31T10:27:00.000-08:002006-12-31T10:27:00.000-08:00"if the authorities have their way, inflation will..."if the authorities have their way, inflation will outpace almost all asset price rises/movements"<BR/><BR/>So you don't follow the deflation camp?<BR/><BR/>Where do you stand on the probability of stagflation?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1167533408958643442006-12-30T18:50:00.000-08:002006-12-30T18:50:00.000-08:00Debt_is_wealthUnder normal circumstances, I would ...Debt_is_wealth<BR/>Under normal circumstances, I would agree with you. But these are not normal circumstances, and - globalization asides - inflation IS the really big risk (at the moent). Housing will implode/condense/combust IF and only IF the economy is allowed to recess (or overpowers attempts to keep it afloat). IF - as seems apparent given ther risks of debt deflation if the normal cycle Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com