tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post115886956518339618..comments2023-11-02T07:30:03.967-07:00Comments on Cassandra Does Tokyo: Get Rich Funds vs. Stay Rich Funds"Cassandra"http://www.blogger.com/profile/17412381249313151515noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1158944569126145672006-09-22T10:02:00.000-07:002006-09-22T10:02:00.000-07:00I concur on the carry trade. But that will happen ...I concur on the carry trade. But that will happen only when Japanese authorities voluntarily do away with ZIRP, the7y are strongarmed unvoluntarily into doing the same, OR things get bad bad bad in teh USA and the interest differentials diminish killing the carry itself. <BR/><BR/>One of the most nagging questions I had in 1998 was: did a BoJ of MoF (or a Fed) official give an ultimatum to HFs Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1158940710735544592006-09-22T08:58:00.000-07:002006-09-22T08:58:00.000-07:00Speaking of fraud, I agree that Refco is par for t...Speaking of fraud, I agree that Refco is par for the course. But LTCM also was a fraud, not on a conscience level, on an intellectual level. The principles of LTCM were arrogant and intellectally dishonest about the limits of their models. <BR/><BR/>Amaranth may or may not have far reaching effects. But there's a bigger elephant waiting in the room to which you have posted numerous times: Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1158923326400003362006-09-22T04:08:00.000-07:002006-09-22T04:08:00.000-07:00Refco was "Fraud" and that is simply part of the d...Refco was "Fraud" and that is simply part of the distribution. LTCM was "6-sigma" from an impact point of view as was '87. Amaranth will prove to havce a greater impact as ordinary investors (read: athletes, CEOs Trustees) RE-discover the risk in Funds' ordinary course of business. "You mean I could lose EVERYTHING??!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-18079728.post-1158899402837924542006-09-21T21:30:00.000-07:002006-09-21T21:30:00.000-07:00Is Amaranth a 6 sigma event? Was Refco a 6 sigma ...Is Amaranth a 6 sigma event? Was Refco a 6 sigma event? Was 9-11 a 6 sigma event (Some would argue market was already on it's way to being decimated regardless of 9-11.)? Was LTCM a 6 sigma event? Was '87 crash a 6 sigma event? Seems to me, only way to know is by the length of post-mortem recovery. Like the snow packed mountains, only a Cassandra would know the timing of avalanche. But as Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com